What preference falsification cascades are you patiently waiting for?
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People challenge EM and say “you have no numbers!” And EM says “yes but here is a thing we know *people do*. Here’s 46 video segments where someone does it.” Like the bicycle disassembly trick.
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“But you don’t know how probable it is people do it!” Why would that matter? People do the trick 7% of the time or 87%; provides the same constraint on models of cognition either way.
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that would be ideal but I think the transition into honest fiction is more realistic
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like what if you couldn’t get your narrative idea validated by an “experiment”? you’d have to write a compelling story on its own terms
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