It worries me a lot that I mostly developed this filter in certain fields, but apply it in other areas. The sleep book _looks_ wrong, but what the hell kinda business do I have rapidly judging a book on sleep?
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Replying to @michael_nielsen @reasonisfun
Yes that’s a conundrum I face too.
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I think if you spend enough time going down a particular rabbit hole, and pursuing many different forking pathways, and seeing many dead ends that at first seemed like golden roads, you can develop a generalized skill in spotting bad reasoning in other fields.
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I think so! I wish more people would write about this; almost nothing has been afaik.
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Interesting that you both have this intuition. I'm very skeptical of the generalizability (which nonetheless being a prisoner of my own desire to generalize in this way).
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Replying to @michael_nielsen @Meaningness and
(I'm amused that we're basically seriously discussing water dowsing here...)
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I don’t think so? “What else would have to be true if this were” is pretty solid
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I don't quite mean literally. I just mean that the felt sense of it can be pretty weird. Like Feynman's confusion at his own ability to spot errors, in the bit I quoted above.
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Ah, yes, …
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Replying to @Meaningness @michael_nielsen and
I don't know who to attribute this too but, "Any large effect sizes will already be folk wisdom," seems like a pretty good heuristic for anything people can directly observe.
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