Effective Altruism uses mainly decision theory (probabilistic expected value analysis) to choose what to fund. @Chris_PK_Smith points out ways that can be misleading.
https://confusopoly.com/2019/04/03/the-optimizers-curse-wrong-way-reductions/ …
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The world is full of unknown unknowns, which decision theory can’t handle at all. Increasing a system’s general robustness to failure is often possible, and… might be the most effective form of altruism.pic.twitter.com/RiEKnEssp0
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Bayesianism is predominantly about beliefs, not decisions. And abstaining from action / postponing is always one possible decision. It often feels you're attacking strawmen when discussing "rationality".
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This is especially frustrating to people who use the LessWrong understanding of rationality, which is markedly different from what you mean by the term. We call this a "straw Vulcan". Spock is "rational", he's also wrong (with high confidence in being right) shockingly often.
End of conversation
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