Effective Altruism uses mainly decision theory (probabilistic expected value analysis) to choose what to fund. @Chris_PK_Smith points out ways that can be misleading.
https://confusopoly.com/2019/04/03/the-optimizers-curse-wrong-way-reductions/ …
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Decision theory assumes you are constantly forced to make specified decisions. In reality, you can walk away from most situations, and that’s often sensible. Don’t make bets with Dutch bookies. Carry a musket, and if you meet a Bayesian Thug, shoot them.https://twitter.com/Meaningness/status/1001172948894466048 …
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The world is full of unknown unknowns, which decision theory can’t handle at all. Increasing a system’s general robustness to failure is often possible, and… might be the most effective form of altruism.pic.twitter.com/RiEKnEssp0
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This thread sounds a lot like
@Scott_E_Page talking mental models. Is that a subset of meta-rationality? Or vice versa? That isn't a connection I had made before. -
“Multi-model paradigm” sounds promising! I’ll take a look when I get a chance, thanks!
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