Effective Altruism uses mainly decision theory (probabilistic expected value analysis) to choose what to fund. @Chris_PK_Smith points out ways that can be misleading.
https://confusopoly.com/2019/04/03/the-optimizers-curse-wrong-way-reductions/ …
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Chris suggests several meta-rational approaches to revising or replacing the use of decision theory in selecting what altruistic projects to fund. These apply more broadly to decision making in other fields.
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Venture capitalists address extreme uncertainty by using several quantitative and qualitative systems simultaneously, e.g.: - market size estimate - comparable-company ratios - discounted cash flow calculation - qualitative management team assessment - industry fashion trends
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Using multiple incommensurable rational systems is a typically meta-rational move. When they disagree, it’s often not feasible to figure out which is right, or to reconcile them. When most investment analysis methods point in the same direction, you may choose to act.pic.twitter.com/rA0ESS4YXY
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Chris gives a concrete example in the Effective Altruism domain, namely malaria net distribution, which looks good when evaluated in many different ways. (Whereas some other projects he discusses got funded on the basis of a single dubious expected-value model.)pic.twitter.com/AFFQgnqf6r
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When you know your probability and/or value estimates are highly uncertain, you can gather information to get better estimates. Also, your model may be wrong overall, not just its numerical parameters. Deciding how much effort to put into better understanding is meta-rational.pic.twitter.com/9jDgzi2uqN
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Decision theory assumes you are constantly forced to make specified decisions. In reality, you can walk away from most situations, and that’s often sensible. Don’t make bets with Dutch bookies. Carry a musket, and if you meet a Bayesian Thug, shoot them.https://twitter.com/Meaningness/status/1001172948894466048 …
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The world is full of unknown unknowns, which decision theory can’t handle at all. Increasing a system’s general robustness to failure is often possible, and… might be the most effective form of altruism.pic.twitter.com/RiEKnEssp0
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