to me this is one of your clearest expressions of how rationalism falls short
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Replying to @KevinSimler @Meaningness
I was about to say it’s the clearest example of how he doesn’t seem to get it.
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“Why do you spend so much time fixing bugs instead of concentrating on all the times the software works normally?”
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Perhaps a better analogy: why are you worried about how the boiler behaves if it gets overpressurized? Why not just focus on how well it runs the rest of the time?
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Replying to @drethelin @Meaningness
I don't really get this analogy. As I understand David, he's saying that rationalism focuses on how to maximize EV at explicit decision points, but ignores how to deal with facets of the system that don't show up as explicit choices
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It's not [rational = bugs] vs. [metarational = working smoothly], but rather [rational = choice points] vs. [metarational = total behavior of the system]
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Replying to @KevinSimler @drethelin
Yes! And not just total behavior of system, but how it fits into its context, and the design space of alternative systems and possible revisions
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Replying to @Meaningness @KevinSimler
But this is literally what conversations about decision theories on Lesswrong are like!
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Replying to @drethelin @KevinSimler
Hmm... maybe a specific example of that would help?
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Thanks! I read the intro and conclusion of this (and very quickly scanned the stuff in between to see if anything looked surprising at a glance, which it didn’t). If I TL;DR’d it as “here are a bunch of reasons decision theory doesn’t work in the real world” would I be wrong?
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i would TL;DR it as "here are a bunch of problems a decision theory would need to solve in order to work in the real world", where "work in the real world" means we can use the concepts from it to think non-confusedly about the properties of real AI systems
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So, at what point should one look at the list of apparently-very-hard problems and say “this looks like the wrong approach, let’s try Plan B”? For me that was 1987: https://www.aaai.org/Papers/AAAI/1987/AAAI87-048.pdf …
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