In research, both problem finding and problem solving are important. Surprisingly often, problem finding is more important than problem solving.
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People also get over confident. Thinking the first time wasn't luck (or rather misinterpreting their success). Thinking about it, it might be a meta-skill. Problem selection/formulation combined with receptivity to identifying/abstracting newly possible approaches
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Yes! And, conversely, feeling for when your field is running out of momentum and it’s time to look for something else that may be opening out
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