Everyone thinks their opinion about economics, nutrition, and AI is as justified as anyone else’s. Expert knowledge is considered irrelevant in these domains. You can figure it out for yourself, using common sense. Your opinion is sensible, and contrary ones are obviously wrong.
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Why do people with little/no knowledge of AI have strong opinions about its rate of progress? I suspect these are really opinions about what it is to be human. They’re intuitions about what aspects of experience are important; about what life is like.
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E.g., rationality comes easily to some people—and not others. Why? the rational ask themselves. Because intelligence. It obviously varies a lot. There’s no apparent upper limit, and it’s easy. So making super-intelligent rational machines should be straightforward engineering.
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My suspicion is that emotion and opinion forming over diet (not nutrition) is more of a social / cultural signifier and has aspects of being a status game. But that doesn't seem to translate easily into why people would have opinions over AI.
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Tho we do have a lot of cultural mythos tied around AI and Automotons. which may be combining with our relationship to work & labor (as a status signal), at least in america/europe. So that may be an aspect to consider. But i'm painting broad strokes.
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