Why is knowledge irrelevant to opinions about economics, nutrition, and AI? In the case of economics, because economic theory is taken as obfuscatory justification for tribal advantage maneuvering. You see through that, and know which tribe is morally superior and so should win.
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In the case of nutrition, there is no genuine expert knowledge. However, in the conditions in which we evolved, it was critical to keep track of what was edible, so (I’m guessing) we have an innate drive to form strong opinions about that.https://meaningness.com/nutrition
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Why do people with little/no knowledge of AI have strong opinions about its rate of progress? I suspect these are really opinions about what it is to be human. They’re intuitions about what aspects of experience are important; about what life is like.
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E.g., rationality comes easily to some people—and not others. Why? the rational ask themselves. Because intelligence. It obviously varies a lot. There’s no apparent upper limit, and it’s easy. So making super-intelligent rational machines should be straightforward engineering.
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These are all classic examples of complex systems, but we've honed our sciences (& experts) on simple systems. Complex systems don't easily conform to the scientific requirements of reproducibility, predictability, or parsimony unless, ironically, transformed into simple systems.
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Beat me to it. Also I think complex systems have a tendency for those within them (a.k.a. all of us) to find niches where it seems like we've figured it all out. In reality we've found a place of temporary stability in this roller coaster we call life.
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Perhaps that's because they are all religions?
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“Actually, experience doesn’t seem to produce any consensus whatsoever, so there’s really no reason to not just have strong opinions right away.” --Tumblr Teen Argumate, IIRC
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This reminds me of Taleb's claim that in politics, investment, etc., the taxi driver is just as likely to be right as the expert. Gigerenzer did study where random ppl outperform experts in investing. This is down to intractable unpredictability.
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I find expert knowledge is irrelevant about expert knowledge. I can figure it out for myself, using common sense.
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