Technical professionals’ moral responsibility to understand when probabilistic methods work—and when they *don’t*.pic.twitter.com/foZViVSvAf
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Technical professionals’ moral responsibility to understand when probabilistic methods work—and when they *don’t*.pic.twitter.com/foZViVSvAf
I don't think either the 2008 financial crisis or the replication crisis are well-summarized by "probabilistic methods don't work here."
In the finance case, @nntaleb has extensively written on how overly simplistic methods were adopted and mis-applied. This doesn't preclude the use of better models (which, to be sure, may well have precluded broad classes of financial products).
In the replication case, misuse of probabilistic models plays a role (e.g., p-hacking), but I would argue that institutional-cultural issues (e.g., incentives in academia, the career-oriented focus of publishing and peer review) are much greater than any technical factor.
David Chapman Retweeted David Chapman
Multiple factors, to be sure! Difficult/impossible to quantitate relative importance. The paper referenced here makes a good case I think:https://twitter.com/Meaningness/status/1037368810825834496 …
David Chapman added,
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