“If your method requires infinite storage space and computation speed to use, the problem is not that finite beings aren’t sufficiently rational, it’s that your method doesn’t work.”
(@nostalgebraist re Bayes, but applies to many rationalist fantasies.)http://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/161645122124/bayes-a-kinda-sorta-masterpost …
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Replying to @Meaningness @nostalgebraist
Worth noting that this was written before Eliezer's "Toolbox-thinking and Law-thinking"; several LW commenters seem to feel that that the T-T & L-T post addresses the criticisms in this post (based on the comments at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gsQjde3qeZw36arYE/nostalgebraist-bayes-a-kinda-sorta-masterpost … ).
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Replying to @xuenay @Meaningness
I disagree that this answers my criticisms. In particular, my section 7 argues that it's practically unfeasible to even write down most belief/decision problems in the form that the Bayesian laws require, so "were the laws followed" is generally not even *well-defined*.
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To be a bit more precise, the framework with a complete hypothesis space is a bad model for the problems of interest, where the inability to work in such a space is part of the problem statement.
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It's sort of like quoting an optimality result given access to some oracle, when talking about a problem without access to that oracle. If the preconditions of a theorem are not met in a given decision problem, "meet those preconditions" cannot be part of a strategy for it.
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Replying to @nostalgebraist @xuenay
From my current draft write-up of the same point…pic.twitter.com/4rwwmY3TAG
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Curious, are you familiar with Andrew Lo's Taxonomy of Uncertainty? ("WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1003.2688.pdf …) Bayes is level 4 (Partially Reducible Uncertainty). Level 5 includes Computational Irreducibility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_irreducibility … .pic.twitter.com/cZDUsMIqcX
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Thank you! Yes, have seen that before, but good to be reminded.
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