TIL: 'social impact bonds' weren't invented in 1988, they were invented in the 1960s as 'performance contracting'; but bombed so badly in the 1972 OEO 18-school quasiexperiment of n=24,000 students that they went down the education research memory hole:https://www.dropbox.com/s/84iu3g4p46qwv9l/1972-page.pdf …
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I learned this reading an old book on SMPY. It's disturbing how much you can learn reading old psychology/psychometric/behavioral genetics books.
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Another thing I've learned is how many longitudinal datasets/quasi experiments/randomized experiments happened during that burst of '60s/Great Society optimism. Project TALENT, Project 100000, Louisville Twin Project, SMPY, OEO performance contractng experiment, Coleman Report...
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1962 National Merit Scholarship twin sample, RAND health insurance experiment, 4 (!) Basic Income/negative income experiments, Head Start, school desegregation, prison rehabilitation (many), polio vaccines, housing vouchers (EHAP), Vietnam Era Twin Registry, Kalamazoo Brothers...
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NORC Brothers, National Longitudinal Survey, General Social Survey (GSS), Abcdarian & Milwaukee Project... Most of these showed, bluntly, that interventions didn't work and the better the evaluation the smaller the effects. This was a huge shock to proponents. Robert Kennedy...
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didn't add eval law because he thought they *didn't* work! One response to Jensen claimed, in all seriousness, that the black-white IQ gap was due to lower meat/protein consumption and would disappear soon. Affirmative action was only supposed to last for a decade or two...
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Arthur Jensen, on a side note, only began looking into behavioral genetics & eventually writing the HER review article in the first place because he was so disappointed at the failure of the remedial education paradigm to, y'know, remediate. Begin at pg96: http://arthurjensen.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/How-Much-Can-We-Boost-IQ-and-Scholastic-Achievement-OCR.pdf …
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He mentions: - Heber review, 29 preschool programs: 5 IQ points (before fadeout) - Bereiter-Engelman, preschool: 10 points, test drilling - Higher Horizons Project: 41 NYC schools, intensive intervention; 0 points - Martin Deutsch’s intensive preschool enrichment program: 1
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- Indiana Project: retarded Appalachian white children pre-k: 10.8/4 - Perry Preschool: 9 fading out to 1.8 - Early Training Project, Peabody: 7.2 - Durham Education Improvement Program: 5/3/9 - Karnes, 3yos: 20 (vs control group losing 3 (?))
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Already ominous echos of future results - small samples show wild gains but bigger samples show smaller, often zero, effects; longer followups show more fadeout; resort to test-specific training to show gains; regression to the mean; and plausible effects only at extremes....
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Reading right now Meehl’s 1990 meta-meta-analysis of meta-analyses, recommended by Gelman (and others). So far, so awesome… http://andrewgelman.com/2015/03/23/paul-meehl-continues-boss/ …pic.twitter.com/pDGukyONWF
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Replying to @Meaningness
Yes, Meehl is great. I sometimes have a hard time understanding what he is getting at, but I have invariably found it worth the effort and returning to occasionally for another whack. I just wish he could've brought himself to go full Bayesian.
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