Yes, sorry, it was not very clear! The idea is that the bottom arrows are the first step (formulating the problem) and the top arrows are the last (implementing the rational solution in reality).
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The black raven thing is really bad example. There is no causal link between ravens and blackness, not all observed correlations are causations. There is no system to infer, no induction step; only a description/categorization step.
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All true. It’s paradigmatic, though. The discussion is therapeutic, in the sense of correcting misunderstandings of how rationality works, so it starts from those misunderstandings.
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Yes! Thank you for the paper link, I’ve only just scrolled through it, but it looks exactly on-target. This diagram is very much the thing. Many people want there to be a fixed procedure that derives justified conclusions from data, but there just isn’t one.pic.twitter.com/hZKNxZEbfm
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how do the blue arrows differ?
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Thread here… I’m afraid this diagram was premature and unclear. But some explanation in the thread:https://twitter.com/Meaningness/status/1008514106830123020 …
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Where’s the unreasonable irrationality?
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Raven scared it off.
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