Can you recommend an overview of everything wrong with probabilistic epistemology? I haven’t found one. There’s lots of papers that say “this particular objection is fatal, so why don’t you guys stop pretending,” but maybe no compendium of those?
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Replying to @Meaningness
Isn’t this Taleb’s lifelong mission? Though I think Cosmo Shalizi is best-in-class. Takes a probabilist to catch a probabilist generally,
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Replying to @vgr
Lots of people understand that probabilism is wrong. And, lots of people write about how it is wrong. What seems missing is a comprehensive list of all the ways it’s wrong.
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Replying to @Meaningness @vgr
I think no one has done that because there’s like 20 fatal defects, and if you want to argue against it, it seems like one conclusive argument should be sufficient. Who wants to comb the literature to find another 19?
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Replying to @Meaningness @vgr
The real defense of probabilism is “where’s your alternative?” There’s no answer, if an alternative is required to be a fixed, guaranteed way of gaining knowledge mechanically without understanding what is going on.
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Replying to @Meaningness
I’d say probabilism is basically a cognitive gamble that allows humans and machines to pretend to think until they’re caught out. Poetically appropriate. “Correlation is not causation” is less a warning than the ignored CYA-TOS you click through to use probabilism.
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Replying to @vgr
Unfortunately this has become standard practice in many/most sciences. Result: replication crisis.
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Replying to @Meaningness @vgr
This seems to be more a problem with our current academic incentives then probability theory. I think any theory could be used in place of PT if it's just being used to get papers.
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Yes, I agree with that strongly. And also, there isn’t an alternative to probability theory… which is why it persists. It would be convenient if there were a way to gain knowledge without understanding, but there isn’t one.
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