Good heavens. Have philosophers never read about how Bayes nets work? Uncertain observations are technology at this point; you send up a non-extreme lambda message. (And this doesn't even violate probability theorems qua theorems, as so many approximations understandably do.)
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My own big contribution to decision theory was logical decision theory, which replaced a huge number of complicated patches to the "fatal" objection of Newcomb's Problem with a simple, unified view. Because I knew it couldn't possibly *actually* be the case that the...
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...basic decision principle was this big weird loopy structure containing lots of exceptions and complications and where the meta-level wasn't consistent with the object level and so on. I knew that had to be humans making mistakes and missing the obvious.https://arbital.com/p/logical_dt/
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