Can you recommend an overview of everything wrong with probabilistic epistemology? I haven’t found one. There’s lots of papers that say “this particular objection is fatal, so why don’t you guys stop pretending,” but maybe no compendium of those?
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Replying to @Meaningness
does this have anything to do with your twitter back-and-forth with Yudkowsky? :D
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Replying to @againstutopia @Meaningness
also,I'd be interested in what you find. In the new edition of the newsletter, I'm calling the 20th century medical gaze the "statistical-inferential" gaze(c/o Foucault), and analyzing the gaze and pharma's episteme, what it sees as a problem and solutions it develops as a result
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Replying to @againstutopia @Meaningness
so I'd love to see any fatal error in this type of thinking, cause the implications are huge. they'd explain much of the e.g. illegibility of sociological / environmental causes and solutions of depression, simply cause the gaze quantifies depression in x way probabilistically
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Replying to @againstutopia
Well, there’s a very long list of fatal, in-principle objections. But maybe more relevant to pharma is the current replication crisis, which is especially acute in biomedical research. That is due to misuse of probabilism. John Ionnanidis is the famous leader in this area.
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Replying to @Meaningness @againstutopia
The naive toolboxer says "Probability must have been the wrong tool" the moment something goes wrong; if you have Law in your metatoolbox you will wonder if the law still held and somebody misapplied it.https://arbital.com/p/4xx/
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“The naive toolboxer” seems like a straw man here? One certainly can make that mistake. Maybe some people often do? Is there evidence for that?
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Meta-rationality is about making good choices about which tools to use, when and why. “Abandon PT at first sign of trouble” would be a failure of meta-rationality.
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