Can you recommend an overview of everything wrong with probabilistic epistemology? I haven’t found one. There’s lots of papers that say “this particular objection is fatal, so why don’t you guys stop pretending,” but maybe no compendium of those?
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The naive toolboxer says "Probability must have been the wrong tool" the moment something goes wrong; if you have Law in your metatoolbox you will wonder if the law still held and somebody misapplied it.https://arbital.com/p/4xx/
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“The naive toolboxer” seems like a straw man here? One certainly can make that mistake. Maybe some people often do? Is there evidence for that?
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oh yeah, familiar with his work. plenty to say there as well, particularly with BP drugs. I'm trying to do a study taking Dumit's ethnomethological account of pharmaceutical marketers and FDA lobbyists, their use of NNT (misuse of probabilism comes in here), and expected results
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but I'll go back and re-examine Ioannidis, thanks for that!
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