Problem is, for each objection, probabilists say “that’s not fatal, we can deal with it (in special cases at least) by adding a whole lot of extra complexity to our story.”
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Collecting all the nearly-fatal objections to probabilistic epistemology in one place would issue a more difficult challenge: can you accommodate all these simultaneously? I don’t want to do this job, but it would be a major service if someone did. (Or has!)
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@ArtirKel, here is a list of eight (nearly?) fatal problems with (Bayesian) probabilism, with brief explanations. It would be great to have something like this, but more comprehensive, and with more discussion. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-bayesian/#PotPro …Show this thread
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Isn’t this Taleb’s lifelong mission? Though I think Cosmo Shalizi is best-in-class. Takes a probabilist to catch a probabilist generally,
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Lots of people understand that probabilism is wrong. And, lots of people write about how it is wrong. What seems missing is a comprehensive list of all the ways it’s wrong.
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does this have anything to do with your twitter back-and-forth with Yudkowsky? :D
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also,I'd be interested in what you find. In the new edition of the newsletter, I'm calling the 20th century medical gaze the "statistical-inferential" gaze(c/o Foucault), and analyzing the gaze and pharma's episteme, what it sees as a problem and solutions it develops as a result
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I still don’t understand what “Law” means here.
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What is wrong is the claim of universality. Probability theory is very useful in many cases.
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Yes… also you have to actually understand what is going on, in terms of a workable ontology (e.g. categories) and background facts stated in those terms. That is not generally captured by “vagueness” or “approximation.”
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