Roving gangs of Bayesian thugs https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/dutch-book/ …pic.twitter.com/OgigzojVGO
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Roving gangs of Bayesian thugs https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/dutch-book/ …pic.twitter.com/OgigzojVGO
It seems worth exploring the costs of this strategy: what do we lose when we strive to engineer the environment and ignore the resulting gaps?
Yes… that is one of the essential meta-rational questions, I think!
I very much like what someone smarter than me said about this: "thats why econ prefers to treat people as static first-order-preference consumption machines rather than fit the theory to reality it became expedient [through propaganda] to fit reality to the theory"
Yes, totally. Probability is useful for gambling. But anything else? I wonder what the probability is that this is true? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzSE4Hoxbc … (It says "Physics" but actually...it's a whole bunch of things "Without Probability").
We are on seriously parallel paths
Evenly. Spaced. Rectangular. Grids.
If you replace the word ‘reality’ with another, then... In archaeology anything you impose your fantasy on is called ‘ritual’. In politics the smokescreen ‘affordability’ is used. In everyday life we use terms like ‘logic’ or ‘science’ to disguise our ignorance of reality.
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