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McDeereUSA's profile
McDeere
McDeere
McDeere
@McDeereUSA

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McDeere

@McDeereUSA

Lawyer. Political Scientist. JD/PhD.

United States
Joined July 2016

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    McDeere‏ @McDeereUSA 11 May 2020

    Something tells me a lot of folks think the curve bending downward means it's less likely you'll get infected if you go out than before shutdown began. It's orders of magnitude *more* likely!pic.twitter.com/GSbi8ZKnuR

    9:20 AM - 11 May 2020
    • 247 Retweets
    • 850 Likes
    • A J Lily H. David M. Freedman Oluwatobi nwace TCB 🌎 Richard Alexander Hopeful Meghan ♠️
    38 replies 247 retweets 850 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. McDeere‏ @McDeereUSA 11 May 2020

        Here's an example of a person who I am 100% sure thinks a slowing rate of new cases means it's now safer to go out than it was when the outbreak started.pic.twitter.com/KZFlIPETs7

        2 replies 22 retweets 172 likes
        Show this thread
      3. McDeere‏ @McDeereUSA 11 May 2020

        WH press corps -- *please* just ask him: "Mr. President, is it safer to go out in public today than it was two months ago?" He's innumerate. He will get this wrong, I promise.

        10 replies 40 retweets 271 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Nicholas Bauer, PhD  👨‍🔬 🔬‏ @BioTurboNick 11 May 2020
        Replying to @RevJackWagon @McDeereUSA

        There are far more actively infectious people now than there were in mid-March.

        1 reply 0 retweets 36 likes
      3. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Theophilus‏ @OptimeTheophile 11 May 2020
        Replying to @McDeereUSA @Noahpinion

        Do you have any resources that chart estimates of current active cases? I only see "new case" charts. Those are useful, but not for estimating how risky it is at a given time.

        3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. Theophilus‏ @OptimeTheophile 11 May 2020
        Replying to @OptimeTheophile @McDeereUSA @Noahpinion

        I suppose one could estimate it by taking the "new case" numbers over the past X number of days where X is the average duration after testing positive that someone is infectious.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. single-use accordion (LA 1/1-1/15)‏ @babarganesh 11 May 2020
        Replying to @McDeereUSA

        Uh no. Here in NYC probably > 10% of the population had it when we shut down. Now it’s less than 1% likely. Plus there are far far fewer social contacts even if you go out.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Kal Laya‏ @Kal_laya 11 May 2020
        Replying to @babarganesh @McDeereUSA

        NY is on a different trajectory than the rest of the US combined.pic.twitter.com/dBuFSJV8LY

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Neil Rubin‏ @NeilARubin 11 May 2020
        Replying to @McDeereUSA

        Nope. Testing was limited when shutdown began and is more widespread now. The higher numbers now are a result of more testing. CDC data on ED visits and deaths from pneumonia/flu/COVID-19 show true US prevalence is significantly down from peak at shutdown: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html …

        4 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Neil Rubin‏ @NeilARubin 11 May 2020
        Replying to @NeilARubin @McDeereUSA

        Just to be clear, that doesn't mean we don't have to be extremely careful in opening up. The R number right now in most of the U.S. is likely only a bit below 1.0, so it is easy to tip things over into growth again if we aren't careful.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. Show replies

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