Here's an example of a person who I am 100% sure thinks a slowing rate of new cases means it's now safer to go out than it was when the outbreak started.pic.twitter.com/KZFlIPETs7
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Here's an example of a person who I am 100% sure thinks a slowing rate of new cases means it's now safer to go out than it was when the outbreak started.pic.twitter.com/KZFlIPETs7
WH press corps -- *please* just ask him: "Mr. President, is it safer to go out in public today than it was two months ago?" He's innumerate. He will get this wrong, I promise.
There are far more actively infectious people now than there were in mid-March.
Do you have any resources that chart estimates of current active cases? I only see "new case" charts. Those are useful, but not for estimating how risky it is at a given time.
I suppose one could estimate it by taking the "new case" numbers over the past X number of days where X is the average duration after testing positive that someone is infectious.
Uh no. Here in NYC probably > 10% of the population had it when we shut down. Now it’s less than 1% likely. Plus there are far far fewer social contacts even if you go out.
NY is on a different trajectory than the rest of the US combined.pic.twitter.com/dBuFSJV8LY
Nope. Testing was limited when shutdown began and is more widespread now. The higher numbers now are a result of more testing. CDC data on ED visits and deaths from pneumonia/flu/COVID-19 show true US prevalence is significantly down from peak at shutdown: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html …
Just to be clear, that doesn't mean we don't have to be extremely careful in opening up. The R number right now in most of the U.S. is likely only a bit below 1.0, so it is easy to tip things over into growth again if we aren't careful.
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