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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
Buttigieg wants to abolish the electoral college. Buttigieg also is declaring victory in Iowa based on partial results that show him losing the popular vote to Bernie
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
Pretty clear Warren’s attack on Sanders at the January 14 debate backfired: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/iowa-caucuses-why-elizabeth-warren-attack-on-bernie-sanders-backfired/ …pic.twitter.com/vonY9i7NZ7
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
The reason Warren's 3rd place could be even worse than Biden's 4th place: it's easy to point to places Biden still holds advantages over Sanders (SC & the South), but much harder to imagine where Warren beats Sanders.
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
For all the attention to the DMR debacle,
@davidbinder caught the late movement to@PeteButtigieg. Via@linkiowapic.twitter.com/wmqgJMWzYr
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
The Warren campaign spin that she was closely bunched with Sanders and Pete for the lead with Biden a distant fourth is ... not reflected in the results released so far.
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On January 14, Sanders was running 5 points ahead of Warren in New Hampshire. He’s now running 12 points ahead of her there.https://twitter.com/mccormackjohn/status/1224834253424398336 …
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Pretty clear Warren’s attack on Sanders at the January 14 debate backfired: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/iowa-caucuses-why-elizabeth-warren-attack-on-bernie-sanders-backfired/ …pic.twitter.com/vonY9i7NZ7
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
Hours of anticipation (and leaked numbers) have led to some interesting dynamics. Sanders had a good night, but since that was sort of baked in, watching SDEs trickle in is dissappointing and frustrating. Biden was presumed to do so poorly that mid-teens seems less awful.
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
When you level up your petty for the good of all mankind. The kids are alright.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/iowa-caucus-strategery-why-cory-booker-won-a-delegate/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
If you take the first-alignment vote so far - closest thing to an actual statewide vote - you can see an almost even divide between center-left and left: Klobuchar + Biden + Buttigieg = 53,877, 50.1% Sanders + Warren + Yang = 53,969, 49.9% Source:https://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/iowa-caucuses-results-alignment …
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Warren campaign said last night Biden was a “distant fourth”. With 62% reporting, Biden much closer to Warren than Warren is to Sanders or Buttigieg.pic.twitter.com/LtJZFi2H86
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
Hey guys, was let go from my job today
. If anyone has any leads, please let me know. I’ve attached my resume. References upon request!pic.twitter.com/B0NuWvP6Cl
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
The assumption that "Biden's more moderate voters defect to Bloomberg when he face-plants" isn't supported by much evidence. Who are Biden's supporters? 1) African-Americans 2) working-class whites 3) moderate affluent whites. Only the third group is a natural Bloomberg fit.
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
Based on Sanders/Buttigieg memos, there’s virtually no question Sanders won the most caucus support in terms of *initial* preference. The race for final preference seems closer but leans Sanders; the race for most SDEs closer yet.
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
Job approval is tightly correlated with vote share, but it isn’t entirely clear which way the causal arrow flows.https://twitter.com/mccormackjohn/status/1224782224362549250 …
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Obama’s job-approval rating recovered in Gallup right when the GOP Iowa caucuses took place in 2012. The same thing may be happening to Trump.https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/is-trump-recovering-in-2020-just-like-obama-did-in-2012/ …
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
It's quite the thing to watch Team Sanders wallow in conspiracy theories when the reforms Team Sanders demanded and received likely contributed to this mess. Paranoia and institutional rot.https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/iowa-in-the-age-of-mistrust/ …
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
I'm usually on the other side but it's really outrageous to blame older, diligent people who handled this for years then got handed a bunch of confusing rules and bad tech by young people!https://twitter.com/juliebosman/status/1224719927933853696 …
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
Iowa party officials are holding a call with the campaigns. Troy Price tells them he'll put out about *50%* of results at 4 p.m. today. There are objections. He won't say when the rest are coming.
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John McCormack proslijedio/la je Tweet
I don't think people are fully pricing in the meaning of an Iowa 4th place for Biden. Like, yes, he can get a lot of delegates from heavily African-American states in the South. But the 538 delegate model has Biden winning a LOT of Northern states. This calls that into question.
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