John McCormackOvjeren akaunt

@McCormackJohn

Washington correspondent at National Review and fellow at National Review Institute.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: ožujak 2009.

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    Buttigieg wants to abolish the electoral college. Buttigieg also is declaring victory in Iowa based on partial results that show him losing the popular vote to Bernie

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    The reason Warren's 3rd place could be even worse than Biden's 4th place: it's easy to point to places Biden still holds advantages over Sanders (SC & the South), but much harder to imagine where Warren beats Sanders.

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    For all the attention to the DMR debacle, caught the late movement to . Via

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    The Warren campaign spin that she was closely bunched with Sanders and Pete for the lead with Biden a distant fourth is ... not reflected in the results released so far.

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  6. On January 14, Sanders was running 5 points ahead of Warren in New Hampshire. He’s now running 12 points ahead of her there.

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    Hours of anticipation (and leaked numbers) have led to some interesting dynamics. Sanders had a good night, but since that was sort of baked in, watching SDEs trickle in is dissappointing and frustrating. Biden was presumed to do so poorly that mid-teens seems less awful.

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    When you level up your petty for the good of all mankind. The kids are alright. 💜

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    If you take the first-alignment vote so far - closest thing to an actual statewide vote - you can see an almost even divide between center-left and left: Klobuchar + Biden + Buttigieg = 53,877, 50.1% Sanders + Warren + Yang = 53,969, 49.9% Source:

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  11. Warren campaign said last night Biden was a “distant fourth”. With 62% reporting, Biden much closer to Warren than Warren is to Sanders or Buttigieg.

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    prije 6 sati

    Hey guys, was let go from my job today 😟. If anyone has any leads, please let me know. I’ve attached my resume. References upon request!

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    The assumption that "Biden's more moderate voters defect to Bloomberg when he face-plants" isn't supported by much evidence. Who are Biden's supporters? 1) African-Americans 2) working-class whites 3) moderate affluent whites. Only the third group is a natural Bloomberg fit.

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    Based on Sanders/Buttigieg memos, there’s virtually no question Sanders won the most caucus support in terms of *initial* preference. The race for final preference seems closer but leans Sanders; the race for most SDEs closer yet.

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    Job approval is tightly correlated with vote share, but it isn’t entirely clear which way the causal arrow flows.

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  16. Obama’s job-approval rating recovered in Gallup right when the GOP Iowa caucuses took place in 2012. The same thing may be happening to Trump.

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    It's quite the thing to watch Team Sanders wallow in conspiracy theories when the reforms Team Sanders demanded and received likely contributed to this mess. Paranoia and institutional rot.

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    I'm usually on the other side but it's really outrageous to blame older, diligent people who handled this for years then got handed a bunch of confusing rules and bad tech by young people!

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    Iowa party officials are holding a call with the campaigns. Troy Price tells them he'll put out about *50%* of results at 4 p.m. today. There are objections. He won't say when the rest are coming.

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    I don't think people are fully pricing in the meaning of an Iowa 4th place for Biden. Like, yes, he can get a lot of delegates from heavily African-American states in the South. But the 538 delegate model has Biden winning a LOT of Northern states. This calls that into question.

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