Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Militant History comes out this week. Here’s an early book review. the-tls.co.uk/articles/publi
Pinned Tweet
56
219
511
Follow
Max Abrahms
@MaxAbrahms
International security prof. Author of book on terrorist dynamics tinyurl.com/y72p5fq3. Lucky husband to .
Academic CampBoston, MAJoined April 2013
Max Abrahms’s Tweets
Schiff should have as few powers as possible related to national security. He has been caught repeatedly lying to American citizens and censoring them for partisan ends. He has no regard for the truth or the First Amendment and is a danger to this country.
Quote Tweet
BREAKING: Matt Gaetz files the “PENCIL” resolution which would ban Adam Schiff from accessing classified information.
Do you support this?
Show this thread
7
16
Tomorrow morning I’m teaching a class to first year undergrads on escalation for Introduction to International Relations, which would really benefit America’s leaders.
1
14
Nuclear war or even massive international conventional escalation doesn’t require a suicidal maniac. There could be mistakes, bad decisions, misperceptions from incomplete information, fear, ego, domestic politics driving very costly responses. Welcome to International Relations.
Quote Tweet
Replying to @MaxAbrahms
So, Max you are implying that Putin is a suicidal manic?
1
6
27
Former advisor to Putin:
“By sending tanks the NATO countries are becoming more openly involved in the war, and that makes them potential targets.”
But I was told the tanks made everyone safer 🤔
2
1
6
A very foreseeable route to major direct war is Ukraine uses weapons from the West to strike inside of Russia. NATO is seen as no different than if it pulled the trigger. All it takes is one incident for things to spiral.
5
12
27
Russia launched a fresh barrage of missiles at Ukraine as Moscow warned of consequences for Western pledges to send the tanks.
The civilian victimization literature suggests that the more Russia struggles in the war the more Russia will kill Ukrainians.
3
More strong evidence of collusion 😉
7
10
31
Hawks have been agitating for war against Russia for years. The difference is that now Democrats are onboard.
2
6
11
Guess who is next in line to purchase Abrams tanks?
Poland and Taiwan
2
3
8
If the same decision-makers were around during the Cold War we would have had a nuclear war, I believe.
6
9
40
There’s also a real possibility that things will spiral out of control. In fact, all this pressure will likely lead to some very negative unpredictable consequences. When those emerge as an emergency, those who pushed & pushed will act surprised & pretend they’re blameless.
11
62
239
Then troops
Quote Tweet
Now that the tanks issue is settled, we can all move to obsessing about F-16s for a couple of weeks.
Show this thread
2
2
15
Fareed Zakaria on CNN keeps saying the Ukraine war is unlike the Iraq war because it has widespread European support. He cites this as evidence that the war is wise & just. But he could have also remembered the Libya war which was also widely supported by Europe & disastrous.
4
13
54
Russia says tanks from West count as “direct involvement” in the war.
This is a correct interpretation and worrisome.
36
118
480
This is why it’s really, really dangerous when our leaders base foreign policy advocacy strictly on emotions, ideology and partisanship.
Quote Tweet
The reason the war in Ukraine has gone on this long is Joe Biden's timid and tardy decisions.
1
7
23
Remember when American war enthusiasts protested against calling the conflict a proxy war? It’s the epitome of a proxy war.
Quote Tweet
Sending tanks to Ukraine makes one thing clear: this is now a western war against Russia | Martin Kettle theguardian.com/commentisfree/
2
8
40
If you think Russia was a danger to America during the Trump presidency wait until you hear about the Biden presidency.
3
8
39
Democrats didn’t even care about Crimea when Biden was VP.
11
10
56
Many prominent overnight terrorism “experts” at ISIS’ height are also culpable for boosting her. I think a big part of the problem is they didn’t study terrorist groups generally but were ISIS “specialists.” It’s like commenting on diamonds without knowing about other minerals.
Quote Tweet
Remember journalist Rukmini Callimachi? The beloved reporter of all terrorism experts? The person who had access to everyone and ended up winning a Pulitzer for her podcast on a non-existent terrorist? True story.
2
6
I suspect if Mayor Pete were president Ukraine would already have our planes.
1
2
12
The paradox of US policy in Ukraine is that the more America helps Ukraine and the more desperate Russia becomes the less secure the United States becomes.
10
16
51
At this point Russia and Ukraine aren’t the only countries that will not accept defeat. Neither will America. This is our war, too, now. Unfortunately.
6
5
24
Elon should spend less time coming up with daily Twitter novelties and more time fixing engagement which he’s throttled.
3
10
I’m already seeing hypothetical discussions about the deployment of American troops.
Here’s my reminder only 1 in 4 Democrats favored sending any weapons to Ukraine when Biden was VP.
4
15
37
Not the first time Germany ended American isolationism.
Quote Tweet
Let’s call a spade a spade: Biden’s contention that “Germany didn't force me to change our mind [on the Abrams]” is flat-out ridiculous. Just 48 hours ago, the Pentagon was describing the Abrams as a gas-guzzling behemoth. We moved because the Germans wouldn’t.
Show this thread
2
9
For foreign policy, yes, died somewhere in Ukraine.
Quote Tweet
Is the term “progressive” obsolete?
1
3
20
Planes, then troops
Quote Tweet
So when Russia blows up the tanks sent by the US to Ukraine, what’s going to be the next “Zelensky needs this to win” item
Show this thread
9
9
41
CNN just ran a whole segment on why Biden hiding confidential documents is totally fine.
7
15
You might think this super precarious and risky conflict would lead to caution but most opinion-makers can’t urge loud enough for greater and greater war involvement.
14
7
40
Ukraine war enthusiasts say this is a war for democracy and then want to punish countries in which citizens express serious reservations about escalating war involvement.
Quote Tweet
BREAKING: Israel rejects a US request to hand Hawk anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine
Show this thread
5
9
42
See how Adam Schiff abused his power to lie to Americans about national security according to the FBI and why he’s been stripped of his power. This is also a lesson to opinion-makers not to reflexively parrot bs partisan talking points like Schiff’s.
From
CSPAN
1
4
36
Americans are very sensitive about foreign countries interfering in our politics but think nothing of determining major policy decisions in defiance of citizen opinion in other countries.
Quote Tweet
Given that the majority of Germans oppose sending tanks to Ukraine, on whose behalf is the German Government acting?
1
17
58
International pressure
Quote Tweet
Given that the majority of Germans oppose sending tanks to Ukraine, on whose behalf is the German Government acting?
2
3
19
I’m surprised the Ukraine conflict hasn’t attracted more foreign fighters.
I know there are some. But I’d expect more given the attrition rates, international interest & tremendous investment in other aspects of the war.
18
4
20
When will Germany learn appeasement doesn’t work?
6
6
25
Where’s Obama for Biden?
3
4
28
Washington Post wanted Saudi Arabia punished for killing a journalist—not 9/11, spreading jihadist teachings around the world, crushing minorities in its own country, starving Yemen…
4
10
32
Many of those right-wing extremists are Democrats.
Quote Tweet
Right-wing extremists stuck Americans with trillions of dollars in debt on failed wars and tax cuts for the super wealthy.
We will not be lectured about fiscal responsibility by this crowd.
4
9
34