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Prikvačeni tweet
POLL WATCHERS: Ever wondered if people were guessing on a survey question? Here's a new rule of thumb: "we don't know" means "they're not sure." Even when people who offer an opinion aren't asked their confidence level, you can still learn about it. [1/9]
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Matt Graham proslijedio/la je Tweet
Interested in measuring conspiracy beliefs? New paper out at POQ with
@UHPoliticalSci grad students@Yongkwangk and Brian Sullivan. We argue common measures inflate conspiracy belief and we propose a better measure. https://academic.oup.com/poq/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/poq/nfz049/5717683?redirectedFrom=fulltext … Preprint: http://scottaclifford.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/CKS_Conspiracies-preprint.pdf … 1/6Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Matt Graham proslijedio/la je Tweet
Folks have noted this disturbing statement on Harvard's website, which must be a violation of journal policies "Scholarly journal editors tell us that...PPR reviews...will often speed up publication decisions and in some cases even skip the journal peer review process entirely."
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Real quote... the extraordinary vanity it takes to repeatedly claim historical firsts, without any effort to engage the historical record, runs strong in the First Family.https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1222516374427316224 …
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This is a great conference! Everyone apply!https://twitter.com/gabriellemalina/status/1222555545166475264 …
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Matt Graham proslijedio/la je Tweet
I also said that competence breeds enjoyment. We're taught to believe enjoyment breeds competence (I "like" reading so I read a lot). It's often the other way round. The more you read the more competent you are, and the more you can enjoy it. Thx for coming to my TED talk. 4/4
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Matt Graham proslijedio/la je Tweet
Shocked but probably shouldn’t be by POTUS statement—“who the hell cares about the budget? We are going to have a country.” Sure a country built on debt like his failed casinos.
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This
@BPC_Bipartisan report is the most even-handed take on immigrants' use of welfare I've ever seen. Bravo. Both sides have facts to support their case. Values largely determine one's preferred slice of the data. cc:@PolitiFact@GlennKesslerWP@snopeshttps://twitter.com/CramonBPC/status/1217119940840427521 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Less-known candidates should note this new research: You have more room to make an impression than your rivals. Tell the world (& donors) your ceiling is high!
@jbuoen@timjhogan@carliewaibel@llcdillon@kelsibrowning@angelakouters@Mapinduzi34#TeamAmy#Klobuchar2020https://twitter.com/Matt__Graham/status/1215321935254605825 …
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Matt Graham proslijedio/la je Tweet
Thoughtful supporters of democratic revolution in Iran would not support maximum pressure, airstrikes and other aggressive tactics, which historically heighten nationalist support for Incumbent governments.https://twitter.com/EliLake/status/1215986384152014848 …
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Matt Graham proslijedio/la je Tweet
Very cool new work from
@Matt__Graham -- extent of don't know responses correlates quite well with the average certainty level of the DO know responses!https://twitter.com/Matt__Graham/status/1215321904757776385 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
In summary: new research shows that when a lot of people are say DK, it's a sign that EVERYONE is relatively unsure of what they think about the question --- even the people who ended up answering it! [9/9] Check out the paper: http://m-graham.com/papers/Graham_DKproxy.pdf …
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To explain why this happens, the paper proposes a new model of DK responding. It's a simplification, but it's consistent with many existing findings on variation in the percent DK between questions, question formats, and survey modes. [8/9]
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This can change how we interpret public opinion polls. Candidates who are less-known don't just have fewer people offering an opinion. Those who offer an opinion are also less sure of what they think. [7/9]pic.twitter.com/zzGf6STKeo
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For example, the % DK explains more than 90% of the variation in average confidence in evaluations different 2020 candidates. (Data from August 2019; candidates selected for variance in % DK, not just top contenders.) [6/9]pic.twitter.com/jnleSHWFRX
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Fortunately, this liability is also an asset. If you account for the fact that different types of questions produce different types of confidence distributions, the heuristic becomes much more accurate. [5/9]
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For example, questions about public figures tend to produce fairly bipolar "know it or don't" distributions (top row), while questions about economic statistics produce flatter distributions that reflect high rates of guessing (bottom row). [4/9]pic.twitter.com/HKHY9ICwtA
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A proxy that explains 50 percent of what you care about is good but imperfect. A key source of error is that different types of questions produce different-shaped confidence distributions. [3/9]
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My new paper (
#SPSA2020) assembles 100+ questions from extant and original surveys. The % saying don't know explains about 50% of the variation in average confidence among the people who offered an opinion (i.e., those NOT saying DK). [2/9] Paper: http://m-graham.com/papers/Graham_DKproxy.pdf …pic.twitter.com/k80Zlx8xPR
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Matt Graham proslijedio/la je Tweet
Well-researched, insightful and provocative. If you're interested in immigration and identity in this era of intense polarization, it's a must read.https://twitter.com/SuzetteMasters/status/1214562949492166657 …
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