The Fed has been saying that inflation won't come down to a sustainable level without wage growth coming down and that unemployment will rise too, yet inflation and wage growth are coming down and unemployment is still low...
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Also the Fed has been fixated on a specific metric for labor market tightness — vacancies per unemployed — and that number is still elevated meanwhile wage growth and inflation are turning down grid.news/story/economy/
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What's the answer? It's likely that hiring and job creation are slowing down albeit with unemployment still low. If job churn slows down, wage growth can slow down without unemployment going up because people are more likely to stay at their current job grid.news/story/economy/
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The big question going into today's Fed decision isn't so much if they hike 25 bp, but if their view of the labor market is less focused on the unemployment rate and job openings/unemployed ratio and more on these inflow/outflow dynamics
