Matt GrossmannOvjeren akaunt

@MattGrossmann

Michigan State political scientist & director; fellow; contributor; New Book: Red State Blues

East Lansing, MI
Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2014.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet

    Can America Become a Multi-Party System? For the latest podcast/transcript, I talked to about his new book, "Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop" & about his research on the history of US electoral reform

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    Updated entrance poll data, based on the gender splits, seems to have it Sanders ~22, Buttigieg ~22, Biden ~17, Warren ~15, Klobuchar ~11

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  3. Caucusgoers are still only 30% 2016 Sanders supporters (according to early entrance polls), but he is consolidating his former supporters better in Iowa than nationally

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  4. The entrance poll (according to MSNBC) says 56% Clinton supporters in 2016, 31% Sanders supporters, others neither. Sanders has almost all of his support from prior 2016 Sanders supporters & new voters, whereas the other candidates split the Clinton vote:

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  5. This would be slightly less liberal than 2016 (but more so than 2008) & more college graduates & more +65 & a few more <20 (but this is a low n entrance poll so far)

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  7. 1) Sanders 2) Warren 3) Buttigieg (as the DMR final poll had it) would lead the 538 model to change the chance of a delegate majority to: 57% Sanders, 15% Biden, 5% Warren, 23% No Majority

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  8. Final Des Moines Register Poll was indeed: Sanders 22% Warren 18% Buttigieg 16% Biden 13% Cernovich leaked were correct

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  9. Live Blog > Live Needle > Live Poll > Live MRP Debate I'll be joining the 538 live blog this evening with many political scientists & data journalists:

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  11. Still would like to see a study of within-caucus dynamics. People's expressed 2nd preferences on surveys are likely weak enough to be overcome by in-room factors. I would expect some people to go to the biggest group among the viable candidates they like.

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  12. But even the more liberal & less compromising Democrats on Twitter are more moderate & more likely to favor compromise than Republicans Find Common Ground vs Fight & Get Less Done: Non-Twitter Dems: 65% - 34% Twitter Dems: 54% - 45% Republicans: 47% - 51%

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  13. Bernie has already risen nationally after his early state rise; IA & NH poll movement produces national poll movement (& $ & media coverage): That may dampen win bounce: Unless candidate over-peforms polls:

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  14. Biden is a similar endorsement favorite as Gephardt in 1988 & Clinton in 2008; he has received substantially more endorsements than the 2nd elite preference (Warren) but most elected officials have sat out the race.

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  15. Warren has spent a lot less on ads in IA ($3.5 million) than Bernie ($5.9 million) or Pete ($6.6 million) & even Yang ($4.4 million). Steyer = $11.3 million. Biden has not spent as much ($3.1 million) but he has if you include SuperPac ($6.1 million total)

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    Excellent new paper from & -- check it out. In brief, whites who display more prejudice are less supportive of democracy, net of relevant covariates.

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  17. Impeachment has crowded out coverage of Iowa, but it’s bounce will depend on coverage of results afterward. SOTU, trial verdict, & any other news events could reduce impact

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  18. Economics papers are increasingly referencing causal identification, using quasi-experimental methods & administrative data, & reporting figures rather than tables, in both top journals & NBER papers

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  19. Michigan has much stronger feelings on Trump than Whitmer, with neither benefiting much from the perceived strong economy & most focused on roads We discuss Michigan survey results on the State of the State:

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    Can news literacy messages on social media enhance effectiveness of expert correction of misinfo? Experiments by et al on Twitter in US suggest expert organizations "can successfully correct misinformation on social media" on controversial issues

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    Trump Super Bowl ads remind us that consultants can run him an effective normal campaign; touting accomplishment that addresses a vulnerability & noting upbeat economic news are both tried & tested ad messages. For final 2016 stretch, they took away his phone & ran normalish ads

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