Matt Glassman

2. It's a mild harbinger of what has always been the true danger for Trump: that an existential split would develop between his political future and McConnell's. Not saying that has happened, but it's worth discussing it a bit. It seems marginally more likely every day this week.

It seems quite obvious that if McConnell would *increase* the chance the GOP controlled the Senate (and thus secure his position as majority leader) by dumping Trump overboard, he'd do it without much of a second thought.

This is, of course, esp true if McC believes the status quo will cost them chamber control. If McC thinks Trump most likely costs them a net 2 seats, no big deal. But if he thinks Trump most likely costs them 5 seats and actual control of Senate, watch out. Existential threat.

3. The key q, thus, is whether McC's fortunes (or the Senate GOPs fortunes) can actually be separated from Trump's. If they can't---if Trump going down automatically takes GOP Senate majority down---there's no danger for Trump or real incentive for McConnell to break with him.

If you read these quotes as a warning shot over the bow toward the WH---shape up or we may have to cut you loose---the implied threat is that McC sees scenarios in which cutting Trump lose would be the least-worst option for the Senate GOP. Is that a bluff? Who knows.

4. This gives Trump lots of incentives to take actions and make public proclamations that his fate and the GOP fate are inherently and inexorably tied together. Don't be surprised if this becomes a theme of Trump's if and when things get worse for him in the coming months.

Once the WH thinks it's possible the GOP Senate may actually turn on Trump, their main goal will be convincing those Senators that there's no political gain from turning on him. You can't stop profiles in courage, but you can try to head of actual political incentives.

This interacts in a complex way with public opinion. It's absolutely true POTUS is more likely to be dumped overboard by GOP if and when his approval ratings begin to sag even further. But that may be attenuated by the degree they are tied to his fate.

If dumping him can't improve their prospects---individually or collectively---then there is little to do except try to prop him up. (Or take a moral stand and go down politically, which is certainly an option, but one few take in politics).

Another data point is the relative silence of GOP Senators. This is still the defining feature of the current dynamic.https://twitter.com/MattGlassman312/status/1179499179879665666?s=20 …

And a related old tweetstorm:https://twitter.com/MattGlassman312/status/838102799481200640?s=20 …

Of course, you might wonder why the split is happening *now* given the roller-coaster ride of the Trump administration. My best answer to that is recent events have disrupted what was a pretty good bargain between GOP and Trump.

That bargain has largely collapsed in the 116th Congress. Because Dems control the House, no GOP legislative policy is happening except judges. And executive branch policy is strongly diverging from their interests, particularly on foreign policy now.

At the same time, the scandals are getting more oxygen, to the point where they really can't be ignored or managed the way they largely were in 2017/2018.

Also this:https://twitter.com/jbview/status/1187060648863240192?s=20 …

And this:https://twitter.com/EricColumbus/status/1187061812153458692?s=20 …

The other thing to remember is McC is not in unilateral control over the Senate GOP. People like to make him out as all-powerful, but like any legislative leader, he is responsive to his caucus, especially when intensity is high. He may be hearing an earful from many members.