For long term investors.
Seriously.
If you start $ cost averaging into the S&P here at 3500 down 25+ in 2022.
Do you think you will do well 5 years from now?
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Five years. Probably not. We are in a weird pincer created by lack of investment in energy and misallocation of capital. If the economy expands energy prices explode and crushes the economy again. It’s a lose lose It will take a decade and great will to fix this.
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I think if it goes bad a decade or more is right. But that’s an if. It could also go good. Slightly less chance but the world economy is in shambles. Someone is going to come out on top.
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Replying to
Not if we are in 1928-1930, 1972-1973, 1999-2000, or 2007-2008… then 5 years from now probably flat
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Exactly, I don’t think this guy really thinks before he sprays tweets… even once we bottom which could take 6 months or even a year we aren’t just going to explode off it. Anyone who really understands knows how horrible this situation is.
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Replying to
There is an 83% probability that the return will be positive after one year.
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15% down... means 20% up to break even: (1.0-0.15=0.85×1.2=1.02) which cancels any gain lower resulting in only a 50% (13/26) better prospect the year after or basically a coin toss.
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Replying to
Very interesting question history would point to yes but as you know nothing is that easy these days
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