So here is the "Great Question for tomorrow."
1) How much does the FED hike?
A) .50 and what does the market do by the close?
B) .75 and what does the market do by the close?
C) 1.00 and what does the market do by the close?
Conversation
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FED is way Too late to the game …. we need to shock the system by 150 bps increase
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It’s hard to say. The system looks like it wants a bounce but like you said, the market looks so weak that a bounce is either not happening or will be really small. I have a small short term call play in favor of a bounce that I don’t mind going to zero. But still in long puts
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a 1.0 hike might put us in march 11 territory and trip the circuit breaker
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I tend to agree with you, even tho the market welcomed .75, I think JP will stick to his last “comment” but tease .75 for the next cycle. No way they go 1. Either way, I think the market rally’s a bit, like you said, before we put in a new low in the mid 360’s.
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That said, I do still think we’ll see a MUCH higher price before the years done. News catalyst, whatever. We need one more leg down before a pop back up to 400’ish, then we’ll see.
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B) 75 basis points and the market closes up: S&P is at 3800 and Dow at 30,750…both drop back down by the end the week.
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