Last 2 Bear Markets for S&P.
2007-2009: down 57% over 1.4 years
2000-2002: down 49.1% over 2.5 years
So down 20%+ from the recent highs in the next year makes sense and is a conservative call.
Conversation
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When you say “recent highs”, are you thinking back to Nov 2021ish as being the “recent highs”?
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480 spy first week of January I believe he is referring too
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Has the 1 in 3 chance of recession in next 3 years prediction been updated? Because it’s feeling alot like that 1 is becoming a reality.