4) "infections were in decline before full UK lock-down (24 March 2020) [...] An analysis of UK data using the model of Flaxman et al. (2020) gives the same result under relaxation of its prior assumptions on R" https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090v5 …
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5) "we are concerned that these studies may substantially overstate the role of government-mandated NPI’s in reducing disease transmission due to an omitted variable bias." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w27719.pdf …
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6) "Although we do not have the code that has been used in the study by Ferguson et al, we know about the values of the R0 and fatality rate used there, which is excessive." https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2333392820932324 …
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7) "Flaxman et al. concluded that [...] lockdowns in particular - have had a large effect on reducing transmission’.[...] a model that has better fit to the data [...] reduces the estimate of ‘counterfactual’ deaths [...] from 3.2 million to 262,000"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1 …
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8)"These are strong assumptions indeed but woefully misleading, the problem being that they regard interventions, lockdowns in this instance, as fixed treatments in fixed applications hav-ing fixed effects." https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1356389020968579 …
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9) "It follows from the above that that study provides no information whatsoever as to the actual contribution from all NPI combined to the reduction in transmission" https://www.nicholaslewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Did-lockdowns-really-save-3-million-COVID-19-deaths-as-Flaxman-et-al.-claim.pdf …
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10) "Despite including details of the contagion and response options, their model is several degrees of abstraction away from what is warranted by the situation." https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e70eb32b16229792eb14836/1584458547530/ReviewOfFergusson.pdf …
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Lockdowns work but question is how much vs. milder NPIs and voluntary behavior. Social distancing can be reached by many means. The model reshaped our thinking in 2020 of lockdown as a superior tool. The 10 papers/reports above suggest that we should rethink this view in 2021.
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Replying to @KasperKepp
Hvilke non-pharmaceutiske interventioner ser ud til at virke - hvilke elementer i lockdowns har en stor betydning? Kritikerne vil sige, at ‘alvoren’ i en nedlukning giver effekten i vores sociale adfærd
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Stanna hemma om man är sjuk, och bättre skydd av de äldre.https://gbdeclaration.org/frequently-asked-questions/ …
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Replying to @MartinKulldorff @masih_sina
Much could've been done to protect our old without collaterals (testing, electronic tools/social distancing, food/life quality at care homes) but too late now - focused protection was never a priority. Many lockdown countries had 40-50% deaths among carehomes (Denmark about 1/3).
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