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MartinKulldorff's profile
Martin Kulldorff
Martin Kulldorff
Martin Kulldorff
@MartinKulldorff

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Martin Kulldorff

@MartinKulldorff

Professor Harvard Medical School. Disease surveillance methods. Infectious disease outbreaks. Vaccine safety. Free SaTScan, TreeScan and RSequential software.

Boston, USA
drugepi.org/team/martin-ku…
Joined May 2014

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    1. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      4) "infections were in decline before full UK lock-down (24 March 2020) [...] An analysis of UK data using the model of Flaxman et al. (2020) gives the same result under relaxation of its prior assumptions on R" https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090v5 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 12 likes
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    2. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      5) "we are concerned that these studies may substantially overstate the role of government-mandated NPI’s in reducing disease transmission due to an omitted variable bias." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27719/w27719.pdf …

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
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    3. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      6) "Although we do not have the code that has been used in the study by Ferguson et al, we know about the values of the R0 and fatality rate used there, which is excessive." https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2333392820932324 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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    4. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      7) "Flaxman et al. concluded that [...] lockdowns in particular - have had a large effect on reducing transmission’.[...] a model that has better fit to the data [...] reduces the estimate of ‘counterfactual’ deaths [...] from 3.2 million to 262,000"https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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    5. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      8)"These are strong assumptions indeed but woefully misleading, the problem being that they regard interventions, lockdowns in this instance, as fixed treatments in fixed applications hav-ing fixed effects." https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1356389020968579 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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    6. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      9) "It follows from the above that that study provides no information whatsoever as to the actual contribution from all NPI combined to the reduction in transmission" https://www.nicholaslewis.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Did-lockdowns-really-save-3-million-COVID-19-deaths-as-Flaxman-et-al.-claim.pdf …

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
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    7. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      10) "Despite including details of the contagion and response options, their model is several degrees of abstraction away from what is warranted by the situation." https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b68a4e4a2772c2a206180a1/t/5e70eb32b16229792eb14836/1584458547530/ReviewOfFergusson.pdf …

      1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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    8. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 15

      Lockdowns work but question is how much vs. milder NPIs and voluntary behavior. Social distancing can be reached by many means. The model reshaped our thinking in 2020 of lockdown as a superior tool. The 10 papers/reports above suggest that we should rethink this view in 2021.

      1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
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    10. Masih Sina‏ @masih_sina Jan 15
      Replying to @KasperKepp

      Hvilke non-pharmaceutiske interventioner ser ud til at virke - hvilke elementer i lockdowns har en stor betydning? Kritikerne vil sige, at ‘alvoren’ i en nedlukning giver effekten i vores sociale adfærd

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff Jan 16
      Replying to @masih_sina @KasperKepp

      Stanna hemma om man är sjuk, och bättre skydd av de äldre.https://gbdeclaration.org/frequently-asked-questions/ …

      6:40 AM - 16 Jan 2021
      • 7 Likes
      • Nikolaj F. Halberg Brumby Mikkel Norsgaard Bo Andersson Neville Goddard aka Jes 🇩🇰👍🇸🇪 Kasper Planeta Kepp Masih Sina
      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. Kasper Planeta Kepp‏ @KasperKepp Jan 16
          Replying to @MartinKulldorff @masih_sina

          Much could've been done to protect our old without collaterals (testing, electronic tools/social distancing, food/life quality at care homes) but too late now - focused protection was never a priority. Many lockdown countries had 40-50% deaths among carehomes (Denmark about 1/3).

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