Those are, ironically, strawman arguments. We have called for and happily engaged with scientist in earnest public debate, but there are few takers. Details here:https://gbdeclaration.org/frequently-asked-questions/ …
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Replying to @MartinKulldorff @VPrasadMDMPH and
I’m grateful for the FAQs, but they did come later. They still avoid many key issues such as how many expected to die, be hospitalized & suffer long term health effects even *best case* in unshielded groups?https://www.demographicscience.ox.ac.uk/post/the-human-cost-of-natural-herd-immunity …
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Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and
How is 3-6 months feasible? Can’t have it both ways & say you’re not encouraging infection but want to reach natural immunity quickly. Such transmission even in young would overwhelm hospitals:https://www.pnas.org/content/117/41/25897 …
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Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and
What % of the population is in the vulnerable categories who are shielded? Between this & high transmission, how do you project this will bring about a rebounding economy?
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Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and
How did vaccines fit into your thoughts in October, and how has that changed?
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Replying to @drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH and
Dear Jenn/
@drjenndowd. Thank you for engaging in a scientific exchange. I really appreciate that. In the next few tweets, I will respond to your posts/questions in backward order. 1/85 replies 13 retweets 58 likes -
Replying to @MartinKulldorff @VPrasadMDMPH and
Thanks Martin. I genuinely appreciate the academic exchange as well. Attempted a x-mas break from twitter but have some initial thoughts on your replies offered below. 1/
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Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and
IMO the GBD proposition to “build up immunity through natural infection” is most compelling if no possibility of vaccines or improved treatments ever or in the foreseeable future. The potential for vaccines looked promising in Sep/Oct but efficacy & timeline were not known. 2/
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Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and
So I still ask, why does having a highly efficacious vaccine available not merit a reconsideration, since any COVID-19 long-term illness, hospitalization & death avoided now (even among younger groups) could be forestalled forever?
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Replying to @drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH and
Fair question. We also need to urgently implement other focused ways to protect the old, since vaccines are not 100% effective and takes time to roll out. That is half the GBD. 1/2https://www.newsweek.com/we-should-focus-protecting-vulnerable-covid-infection-opinion-1543225 …
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Lockdown measures such as closed schools/universities are generating enormous long-term collateral damage on children and young adults. The price on working class is too high from lockdowns that failed to protect the old. This is the 2nd half of GBD. 2/2http://www.collateralglobal.org
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Replying to @MartinKulldorff @VPrasadMDMPH and
Agree
that school closures are very costly-Europe chose a different path than US but that doesn't imply not minimizing transmission otherwise. Re:collateral damage-I thought you said GBD was not about economic costs? & this evidence separates effects of restrictions vs. virus?1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH and
The GBD is about collateral public health damage from lockdowns and accompanying fear, e.g. less vaccinations, worse cardiovascular disease outcomes, missed cancer appointments, more opioid deaths, deteriorating mental health, more malnutrition/starvation.https://collateralglobal.org/
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