How is 3-6 months feasible? Can’t have it both ways & say you’re not encouraging infection but want to reach natural immunity quickly. Such transmission even in young would overwhelm hospitals:https://www.pnas.org/content/117/41/25897 …
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We do not know enough about
#COVID19 to accurately predict expected number of deaths, hospitalizations, or long-term health effect, under any strategy. With unreliable R0, IFR and HI estimates, Imperial College type models are not helpful. 7/8
We do know that there is more than a thousand-fold mortality risk between old and young. Zero-COVID is impossible in US/UK, and focused protection minimizes #COVID19 mortality irrespectively of R0, IFRs and herd immunity thresholds. 8/8https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-counter-measures-should-age-specific-martin-kulldorff/ …
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Dr Kulldorff, thank you. I'm a lay person but one thing I notice in public health is that so many initiatives/restrictions/guidance seem to be premised on how people SHOULD behave, instead of how humans *will* behave. Isn't that dooming these policies to failure? For example:1/n
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In the US, there are 66 million people (20% of population) between the ages of 15-29. Most adults know this group is highly "hormonal", in need of social contact, mating, etc. Many of them also lack good judgement, are selfish, etc. They "shouldn't" be, but are. Which means 2/n
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Data on "Long Covid" is only beginning to be collected systematically, but given the possibility of long term disabling effects & productivity losses, how does this factor into the trade-offs? Especially again w/ vaccination imminent. https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/theprevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications …
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There is obviously much more to discuss. Overall, claims such as "for people under 70 without chronic conditions-COVID 19 is far less deadly than a lockdown" should make explicit the assumptions & provide data to support comparing scenarios.
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