I’m grateful for the FAQs, but they did come later. They still avoid many key issues such as how many expected to die, be hospitalized & suffer long term health effects even *best case* in unshielded groups?https://www.demographicscience.ox.ac.uk/post/the-human-cost-of-natural-herd-immunity …
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If the young live normal lives, some will be infected, but their risk is less than from lockdown collateral damage. Pandemic will then be naturally over in 3-6 months. Lockdowns just prolonged the pandemic while completely failing to protect the old. 6/8
We do not know enough about #COVID19 to accurately predict expected number of deaths, hospitalizations, or long-term health effect, under any strategy. With unreliable R0, IFR and HI estimates, Imperial College type models are not helpful. 7/8
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We do know that there is more than a thousand-fold mortality risk between old and young. Zero-COVID is impossible in US/UK, and focused protection minimizes
#COVID19 mortality irrespectively of R0, IFRs and herd immunity thresholds. 8/8https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-19-counter-measures-should-age-specific-martin-kulldorff/ … -
Dr Kulldorff, thank you. I'm a lay person but one thing I notice in public health is that so many initiatives/restrictions/guidance seem to be premised on how people SHOULD behave, instead of how humans *will* behave. Isn't that dooming these policies to failure? For example:1/n
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We cannot accurately predict but we can't dismiss predictions either. The answer is to present people with as much information as we have and to let them choose their path. That is what https://greenbandredband.com would achieve.
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It’s not true that we have no good data w/ which to estimate COVID-19 burdens. The IFR estimates are quite consistent including w/ national representative seroprevalence data. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 ….
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These IFRs lead to large
#s of deaths in the “non-vulnerable” group b/c of the high # of infections to reach population immunity. At current IFRs we calculated 69K deaths *under age 65* in the best case focused protection scenario in UK. In US-over 350K. https://www.demographicscience.ox.ac.uk/post/the-human-cost-of-natural-herd-immunity …. - Show replies
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Re: "With unreliable R0, IFR and HI estimates, Imperial College type models are not helpful." Your misinformation on IFR is noted, Kulldorff, and hasn't changed for months.https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1337841979762352133 …
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