Martin Kulldorff on Twitter: "If the young live normal lives, some will be infected, but their risk is less than from lockdown collateral damage. Pandemic will then be naturally over in 3-6 months. Lockdowns just prolonged the pandemic while completely failing to protect the old. 6/8… https://t.co/3vcHcJkS0S"

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Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 23 Dec 2020

Replying to @drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH and

Those are, ironically, strawman arguments. We have called for and happily engaged with scientist in earnest public debate, but there are few takers. Details here:https://gbdeclaration.org/frequently-asked-questions/ …

5 replies 4 retweets 38 likes

Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @VPrasadMDMPH and

I’m grateful for the FAQs, but they did come later. They still avoid many key issues such as how many expected to die, be hospitalized & suffer long term health effects even *best case* in unshielded groups?https://www.demographicscience.ox.ac.uk/post/the-human-cost-of-natural-herd-immunity …

1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes

Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and

How is 3-6 months feasible? Can’t have it both ways & say you’re not encouraging infection but want to reach natural immunity quickly. Such transmission even in young would overwhelm hospitals:https://www.pnas.org/content/117/41/25897 …

2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes

Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and

What % of the population is in the vulnerable categories who are shielded? Between this & high transmission, how do you project this will bring about a rebounding economy?

3 replies 0 retweets 1 like

Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @drjenndowd @MartinKulldorff and

How did vaccines fit into your thoughts in October, and how has that changed?

1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @drjenndowd @VPrasadMDMPH and

Dear Jenn/@drjenndowd. Thank you for engaging in a scientific exchange. I really appreciate that. In the next few tweets, I will respond to your posts/questions in backward order. 1/8

5 replies 13 retweets 58 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @drjenndowd and

Vaccines are great for focused protection if we prioritize older high-risk people and their care takers, like Florida. To minimize deaths, we must also urgently improve protection of the old through standard public health measures listed in the @gbdeclaration & FAQ. 2/8pic.twitter.com/AXaGdmuBN5

5 replies 28 retweets 100 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @drjenndowd and

Nursing home residents have highest risk, but <1% of US population. People >60 who should work from home or take short sabbaticals are fewer than those currently working from home. There are many retirees, but protecting them with e.g. grocery deliveries is relatively easy. 3/8

2 replies 4 retweets 35 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @drjenndowd and

Not an economist, so I dare not make economic projections. The #GreatBarringtonDeclaration is solely based on minimizing mortality from #COVID19 and minimize lockdown generated collateral damage from eg cancer, cardiovascular disease and mental health. 4/8http://www.gbdeclaration.org

2 replies 4 retweets 47 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @drjenndowd and

Few people <50 require hospitalization. To avoid overburdened hospitals, the key is to protect the old through focused protection. Everyone should take basic precautions, and nobody should deliberately get infected. That is stupid. Also increases the herd immunity threshold. 5/8

5 replies 7 retweets 42 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 24 Dec 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @drjenndowd and

If the young live normal lives, some will be infected, but their risk is less than from lockdown collateral damage. Pandemic will then be naturally over in 3-6 months. Lockdowns just prolonged the pandemic while completely failing to protect the old. 6/8

2:44 PM - 24 Dec 2020

30 Retweets
149 Likes

8 replies 30 retweets 149 likes

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1. Jenn Dowd‏ @drjenndowd 26 Dec 2020
  Replying to @MartinKulldorff @VPrasadMDMPH and
  
  The 3-6 month timeline relies on assumptions about the speed of transmission to reach population immunity. What are those assumptions? Also, claim that "risk is less than from lockdown collateral damage" requires assumptions & calculations w/ data which I have not seen.
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1. Michael Betrus‏ @betrus_michael 26 Dec 2020
  Replying to @MartinKulldorff @drjenndowd and
  
  We are seeing very high LTCF infections and deaths after nine months, 50K cases/week, ~10K deaths/week, while applying a one-size fits all lockdown approach. One star care facilities are ~20% of all LTCF and 17 times greater risk than 3-5 star ones. No tone-it must be very hard.
  
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