Agree an important perspective. I disagree that most GBD critics were focused on funding, but were asking for details of the plan & earnest debate, which was not forthcoming. @melindacmills @dgurdasani1 @BillHanage
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Not an economist, so I dare not make economic projections. The
#GreatBarringtonDeclaration is solely based on minimizing mortality from#COVID19 and minimize lockdown generated collateral damage from eg cancer, cardiovascular disease and mental health. 4/8http://www.gbdeclaration.org
Few people <50 require hospitalization. To avoid overburdened hospitals, the key is to protect the old through focused protection. Everyone should take basic precautions, and nobody should deliberately get infected. That is stupid. Also increases the herd immunity threshold. 5/8
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If the young live normal lives, some will be infected, but their risk is less than from lockdown collateral damage. Pandemic will then be naturally over in 3-6 months. Lockdowns just prolonged the pandemic while completely failing to protect the old. 6/8
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We do not know enough about
#COVID19 to accurately predict expected number of deaths, hospitalizations, or long-term health effect, under any strategy. With unreliable R0, IFR and HI estimates, Imperial College type models are not helpful. 7/8 - Show replies
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If there are no policies or resources available to protect the vulnerable, does that mean the lockdowns/health orders should stay in place?
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If they can implement lockdowns then they can implement the alternatives.
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well, depends on definition of
#HerdImmunity we'd settle on ...https://twitter.com/aier/status/1341911421018386439 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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"Few people <50 require hospitalization." I find this very difficult to square with the CDC data on hospitalization rates. The 18-49 year old age bracket has the highest illness rate & is hospitalized at a 10X higher rate from COVID-19 than in a severe flu season....pic.twitter.com/hV5OCc7JHP
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This would imply a significantly higher burden on health care systems than your statement suggests. Can you clarify?
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