This is wrong, empirically. It has definitely worked – exceptionally well – in South Korea and many other countries.https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1307377809619288065 …
Hi Rupert. Countries like S Korea and NZ have mainly kept number low through lockdowns, including nation-wide isolation, which can postpone outbreaks until we have a vaccine 3 month to never from now. With few cases, their contact tracing has helped a little on top of that.
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PS: My offer to talk is still open. Whenever you wish, and either in public or private.
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Yes, trying to find time. But a colleague has just shared some exciting data....
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That's not true at all of SK which has only had mild regional 'lockdowns'. They were persuaded to close nightclubs at some point I grant you. Efficient TTI has been one important measure, alongside masks etc.
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Embarrassingly, factually incorrect. "Various measures have been taken to mass test the population for the virus, and isolate any infected people as well as trace and quarantine those they had contact with, without further lockdown."
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"The rapid and extensive testing undertaken by South Korea has been judged successful in limiting the spread of the outbreak, without using the drastic measure of locking down entire cities."
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"However, the South Korean model seems to have worked to curtail a rapid outbreak originally tied to a secretive religious sect while avoiding the heavy-handed lockdown of an authoritarian regime such as China."
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Yep - the outbreak in countries such as NZ, Australia is just prolonged at a huge cost. Only time will tell, but so far, its seeming like the Swedish strategy was clearly the more rational, clear-headed, sane response to this pandemic.
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Let’s see how well this tweet ages.
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In Singapore, hailed as a success, while contact tracing has also been quite efficient, the low fatality rates seem to be linked to the demographics with c. 95% of recorded cases in migrants workers (20-30s)
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The city-state is also carrying out pre-emptive treatments with patients above the age of 45 years (or with underlying health conditions) being cared for in hospital even if they are otherwise well.
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