The world's most prominent infectious disease epidemiologist, professor @SunetraGupta at Oxford, says that she "welcomes the return of schools as children, if anything ... would benefit from being exposed to this and other seasonal coronaviruses”.https://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/the-londoner-let-children-be-exposed-to-viruses-says-professor-gupta-a4538386.html …
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Martin. Tegnell wondered if a 10% increase in death by sending kids to school would be worth it. See his email exchange with Giesecke and Carlsson. Most academics like myself would say NO, if only bc we do not know if HI can be reached w/o a vaccine. So strategy is unethical.
Hi George. An age-targeted strategy that properly protects the elderly and other high-risk people while letting children and younger adults live their lives more normally leas to fewer deaths over the long term, so that is the ethical strategy.
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Ethical compared with current strategy perhaps. Not so wrt suppression aka lockdown OR intensive tracking tracing isolation. See KPMG report, IMF Blog, Nature.
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Martin. Dutch is close to Swedish. Try thishttps://home.kpmg/nl/nl/home/insights/2020/06/onderzoekers-kpmg-en-vu-kies-voor-indammen-van-covid-19.html …
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Här är en svaghet i ditt argument. Min text på Facebook Ett fel i artikeln är att det finns inget fall av lyckades Flockimmunitet utan vaccin, men skribanten vet väl att programmet slutar *när* vi har en vaccin. Dvs programmet inte behövs.
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TheWHO and Consultancy KPMG argue that for Holland TestTrackTest is enough to reduceR. Dr Friederich in Groningen proved that for the Northern Provinces in NL. That implies that lockdowns are not always needed. Which is a problem for you, as your argument relies on their need
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Hi Martin. What evidence do you have to support the idea that (1) it's possible in reality to protect the elderly and risk groups and (2) that immunity is protective enough to generate fewer deaths? I would also add longcovid as a factor to any speculation on ethics.
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And don't forget teachers, staff, and everyone kids will meet going to and from school e.g. family. How to protect them? The idea is NOT to protect them, let the kids infect them. Now that is highly unethical, as many deaths will result. Ameliorate it by following WHO.
End of conversation
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What would that age targeted strategy look like Martin?
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Sure He told me that a month ago, a lot of words, no filling in. He should get another job.
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