Martin Kulldorff

With age-targeted counter measures, the young/healthy will catch it somewhat more quickly than the old, but many or most of the old (and otherwise at-risk) will eventually catch it from the young/healthy.

No. As more of the young population catches it, the r0 declines leading to less spread. Less spread means that less at-risk ppl will acquire Covid. This results in less overall death since a higher proportion of young to old will get Covid.

"As more of the young population catches it, the r0 declines leading to less spread." *Initially*, as more young catch it and have it and are contagious with it, more old people will catch it, too, without the old being strictly quarantined from the young.

The same amount of young people will catch it regardless if it is tomorrow or spread out over the next six months. If we don't protect the old ppl more than them, everyone has equal opportunity to catch it. The more we do to protect the old, the less overall deaths. 1/2

Maybe just try to protect everyone from getting it as much as possible until there’s a vaccine. Crazy I know. Saving lives. But some places are doing this stuff extremely well. I’ll follow their example.

Feel free to give the old and vulnerable and equal chance. If you want more deaths, that's the way to go.

You are assuming your way reduces infections. It’s riddled with “heroic” (not a good thing) assumptions and abstractions. Only a madman would gamble with lives like that. If you are wrong it’s back to Sweden in the spring. No thanks.

No, I'm assuming my way reduces infections in the old and more vulnerable.