No respectable epidemiologist claims that 70%, or any other number, is needed for #herdimmunity. We do not yet know. Also, depends on who. Less needed if e.g. young contact rich professionals build herd immunity, rather than elderly nursing home residents.https://twitter.com/mrgrimm/status/1289986991174557696 …
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Neil Ferguson et al, Imperial College, predicted 81% would become infected absent interventions.pic.twitter.com/jGZsbfXFvm
To run his models, @neil_ferguson had to guess several input parameters. No matter how advanced the models are, that means that the output results are also guesses. So, take that 81% with a truckload of salt.
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Nonetheless, he would be a respectable epidemiologist who thinks herd immunity might mean more than 70% infected, no? (I don't know who's right - just asking if opinion is more dispersed than you've suggested.)
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At this point in the pandemic it is impossible to know what infection percentage is needed for herd immunity. A good epidemiologist realizes and acknowledges that. Neither is there a single number. It depends on who gets infected, which depends on the strategy used.
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