Mycket bra skrivet!
"Britain is playing musical chairs with different services and businesses". Instead, "to minimize mortality, one must go all-in for the age-based strategy.' My oped in @spectator:https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-is-still-key-in-the-fight-against-covid-19 …
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There are a lot of 70 year olds, who are much healthier then many 40 year olds(obese smokers,with various other health issues)These 40 year olds can be more at risk then a healthy 70. So drawing a line based purely on birthdate would not necessarily protect the most vulnerable.
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There really is no practical difference between telling a 70+ y/o person to isolate versus a 40 y/o person who has health issues to isolate. Both are done by self evaluation. Same with allergies, diabetes, etc. If you know you’re at risk (based on data) stay isolated for now.
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Excellent!
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Perhaps, if a vaccine were not open the horizon
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The errors given here: 1. Given fatality is confounded by age. 60-90% of deaths in each jurisdiction come from 10-15% of the population. 2. Protecting older and vulnerable groups changes this, 3. Propose herd immunity is presented for highest estimate, could be 20%.
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great piece! Please send one to the NYTimes as well! -
I highly doubt the NYTimes would ever publish something with the dreaded words "herd immunity" in the heading.
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Totally agree thanks. Protect the vulnerable (it’s more than just age, it’s other conditions) and do it well. Let the young work & play as they weaken the virus transmission in time honoured tradition. And give everyone information about risk not stupid laws.
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