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In Sweden right now, R is well below 1. When cases are close to zero and more restrictions are removed, R will increase. If R<1 when fully open, there is heard immunity. If R rises above 1, there will be another bump until increased immunity drives R below 1 again.https://twitter.com/BierleinPar/status/1291087338114883584 …
Not just comfortably below 1 but also *very tightly clamped* below 1. Literally a straight line you can draw with a ruler for the past 4 months. Hard to believe such consistency is attributable to soft recommendations and voluntary human behaviors.pic.twitter.com/TBs2upTVaj
Thanks Ramin. Where is the graph from? I agree that it is hard to believe such a flat line once it went below one.
Thanks for the answer! But if the restrictions like work from home and limited size of gatherings etc are kept until (hopefully) there is a vaccine then R maybe can be <1 until vaccine mediated immunity is reached? If there is no big seasonal effect.
Martin, what is your sense regarding his back to normal Swedish social activity has become? Looking at Apple mobility data, seems like it’s close. But I know that’s a blunt proxy.pic.twitter.com/zK9lRTErv2
@HaraldofW do you want to chime in here?
Does herd immunity threshold depend in part on whether there is a second wave this winter/spring in Sweden?Like Europe in 69/70? Put differently, could seasonality have ended things prematurely this spring? I certainly hope it’s over, but want to understand the big picture
it is good what you are saying but you need to go beyond, do much more, be bold and trust the instinct that tells you
that the Covid lies are leading us to dictatorship. Scientists'integrity And courage are needed now. Please do it! Thanks!
1/2 I think we have to take the seasonal variability of R(0) into account. If Sweden opened up totally today, there would be one bump, but in winter, there would be a second one. I am pretty sure, that Tegnell and the like will head into winter with the current measures ...
2/2 ... in place and take a look at how it all plays out (esp compared with other EU countries). After the winter "wave" (I am pretty sure that there will be sth like that), they will go back to the "old normal". Would make sense to me. *Nostradamus-mode off*
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