Martin Kulldorff on Twitter: "Thank you. The 1-1/R0 formula assumes uniformity, with everyone equally likely to infect everyone else. Useful in teaching, but never true in real life. So, no respectable epidemiologist would use it to estimate herd immunity for an ongoing epidemic. Also, we do not know R0.… https://t.co/XcQxa8Tu87"

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No respectable epidemiologist claims that 70%, or any other number, is needed for #herdimmunity. We do not yet know. Also, depends on who. Less needed if e.g. young contact rich professionals build herd immunity, rather than elderly nursing home residents.https://twitter.com/mrgrimm/status/1289986991174557696 …

Uranus @mrgrimm

Replying to @stacey_rudin @vegsource and 3 others

"Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic." That would be summer 2021. ~500,000 people dead. https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/herd-immunity-and-covid-19-what-you-need-to-know/ …

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