Martin Kulldorff on Twitter: "Ed, here are the seroprevalence numbers from Spain. Consistent with younger children being less likely to infect others, although there are many unknown parameters. E.g. the two directions may have different probabilities.… https://t.co/YCBVrP5rpE"

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Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 26 Jul 2020

Replying to @mlipsitch @DiseaseEcology and

This document does include a basic description of methods (under sections "Sammanfattning" and "Introduktion") https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/5e248b82cc284971a1c5fd922e7770f8/forekomst-covid-19-olika-yrkesgrupper.pdf … Are there specific things you are looking for that we could try to get to the bottom of?

1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes

Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 26 Jul 2020

Replying to @WesPegden @mlipsitch and

Here are three different excerpts after google translation.pic.twitter.com/OuPB5juvnm

1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes

Marc Lipsitch‏Verified account @mlipsitch 26 Jul 2020

Replying to @WesPegden @DiseaseEcology and

Thx will look tomorrow

1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes

Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 29 Jul 2020

Replying to @mlipsitch @DiseaseEcology and

Wes Pegden Retweeted Goldammer

It's been pointed out to me that there is related data from Denmark (which I have not personally looked at as carefully).https://twitter.com/Goldammerfeder/status/1278267230493515776 …

Wes Pegden added,

Goldammer @Goldammerfeder

Replying to @ProfEmilyOster

If interested, there is similar data available from Denmark (open schools for 11 weeks) with more detail level and weekly Yellow: education (below average) Red: health sector More details in „Branchefordelte opgørelser“ here: https://www.ssi.dk/sygdomme-beredskab-og-forskning/sygdomsovervaagning/c/covid19-overvaagning … pic.twitter.com/W1SQV2L8Zy

1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

Wes Pegden‏ @WesPegden 1 Aug 2020

Replying to @WesPegden @mlipsitch and

Wes Pegden Retweeted Martin Kulldorff

Also this is also an important reference. Thanks for taking a look.https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1289657093448851458 …

Wes Pegden added,

Martin Kulldorff @MartinKulldorff

Replying to @apoorva_nyc @TheNickFoy

Population studies are better. One evaluated high-risk 70+ individuals during height of pandemic in Sweden. Those living with working age adults had higher risk, but no excess risk beyond that if also living with children age <16 (with schools open). https://su.figshare.com/articles/preprint/Residential_Context_and_COVID-19_Mortality_among_the_Elderly_in_Stockholm_A_population-based_observational_study/12612947/1 …

1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes

Edward Goldstein‏ @EdwardGoldste16 1 Aug 2020

Replying to @WesPegden @mlipsitch and

Why should there be a risk associated with living with a child if infection rates in children (at least based on seroprevalence estimates) were no higher than in adults aged 20-64y?http://outbreaknewstoday.com/sweden-covid-19-studies-ongoing-infection-antibody-tests-in-blood-donors-98648/ …

2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 1 Aug 2020

Replying to @EdwardGoldste16 @WesPegden and

Hi Ed. If adults and children are equally infectious, then risk is higher when living with an adult+children than only with an adult. If risk is the same, as estimated in the Wes cited population based study, then school attending children are not prone to infect family members.

1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

Edward Goldstein‏ @EdwardGoldste16 1 Aug 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @WesPegden and

In that paper, living alone has the highest point estimate for a risk, significantly higher than having an elderly co-resident: https://su.figshare.com/articles/preprint/Residential_Context_and_COVID-19_Mortality_among_the_Elderly_in_Stockholm_A_population-based_observational_study/12612947/1 … We don't understand the social mixing and other factors from the results of the paper.

2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 1 Aug 2020

Replying to @EdwardGoldste16 @WesPegden and

Living alone also increases non-COVID mortality, so may be due to frailty. Those not living alone have the same lower non-COVID mortality, irrespective of the age of family members. But, potential bias if those living with children live with fewer adults.

2 replies 0 retweets 1 like

Edward Goldstein‏ @EdwardGoldste16 1 Aug 2020

Replying to @MartinKulldorff @WesPegden and

Perhaps there are fewer adults in those households. In Geneva, seroprevalence in teens aged 10-19y is on par with adults aged 20-49y https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31304-0 … If teens don't infect each other much, how could they have such high infection rates?

2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 1 Aug 2020

Replying to @EdwardGoldste16 @WesPegden and

Ed, here are the seroprevalence numbers from Spain. Consistent with younger children being less likely to infect others, although there are many unknown parameters. E.g. the two directions may have different probabilities.pic.twitter.com/iveljpID31

9:02 PM - 1 Aug 2020

1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes

1. Edward Goldstein‏ @EdwardGoldste16 1 Aug 2020
  Replying to @MartinKulldorff @WesPegden and
  
  I agree that there is some evidence that younger children are less infectious (don't know by how much, e.g. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.03.20121145v1 … -- there might be biases in that paper, though pediatric indices cased infections in their households). The issue is spread in different schools.
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