Marm, your criticisms made me take a second look, but I don't think they are on target. >> half of the references we review test all contacts, regardless of symptoms. One is unspecified, one tests symptomatic only, and one tests sx only but uses tested (not total) as denominator
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Replying to @mlipsitch @DiseaseEcology and
The general pt that id'ing the index is tricky is true for contact studies, but its role in causing bias is unclear. You say we misuse anecdotes but don't say what you mean. And for the policy questions summarizing evidence with caveats is better than "we don't know, don't act"
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Replying to @mlipsitch @DiseaseEcology and
Can either of you explain why the occupational data (e.g., from Sweden, pre-lockown UK) on the relative risk to teachers when schools are open is not extremely relevant here? It's endpoint data on something we actually want to know.
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Replying to @WesPegden @DiseaseEcology and
It is relevant. Weird document w no data or methods just conclusions. But important if true
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Replying to @mlipsitch @DiseaseEcology and
This document does include a basic description of methods (under sections "Sammanfattning" and "Introduktion") https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/5e248b82cc284971a1c5fd922e7770f8/forekomst-covid-19-olika-yrkesgrupper.pdf … Are there specific things you are looking for that we could try to get to the bottom of?
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Replying to @WesPegden @mlipsitch and
Here are three different excerpts after google translation.pic.twitter.com/OuPB5juvnm
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Replying to @mlipsitch @DiseaseEcology and
Wes Pegden Retweeted Goldammer
It's been pointed out to me that there is related data from Denmark (which I have not personally looked at as carefully).https://twitter.com/Goldammerfeder/status/1278267230493515776 …
Wes Pegden added,
Goldammer @GoldammerfederReplying to @ProfEmilyOsterIf interested, there is similar data available from Denmark (open schools for 11 weeks) with more detail level and weekly Yellow: education (below average) Red: health sector More details in „Branchefordelte opgørelser“ here: https://www.ssi.dk/sygdomme-beredskab-og-forskning/sygdomsovervaagning/c/covid19-overvaagning … pic.twitter.com/W1SQV2L8Zy1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @WesPegden @mlipsitch and
Wes Pegden Retweeted Martin Kulldorff
Also this is also an important reference. Thanks for taking a look.https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/status/1289657093448851458 …
Wes Pegden added,
Martin Kulldorff @MartinKulldorffReplying to @apoorva_nyc @TheNickFoyPopulation studies are better. One evaluated high-risk 70+ individuals during height of pandemic in Sweden. Those living with working age adults had higher risk, but no excess risk beyond that if also living with children age <16 (with schools open). https://su.figshare.com/articles/preprint/Residential_Context_and_COVID-19_Mortality_among_the_Elderly_in_Stockholm_A_population-based_observational_study/12612947/1 …1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @WesPegden @mlipsitch and
Why should there be a risk associated with living with a child if infection rates in children (at least based on seroprevalence estimates) were no higher than in adults aged 20-64y?http://outbreaknewstoday.com/sweden-covid-19-studies-ongoing-infection-antibody-tests-in-blood-donors-98648/ …
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Hi Ed. If adults and children are equally infectious, then risk is higher when living with an adult+children than only with an adult. If risk is the same, as estimated in the Wes cited population based study, then school attending children are not prone to infect family members.
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Replying to @MartinKulldorff @WesPegden and
In that paper, living alone has the highest point estimate for a risk, significantly higher than having an elderly co-resident: https://su.figshare.com/articles/preprint/Residential_Context_and_COVID-19_Mortality_among_the_Elderly_in_Stockholm_A_population-based_observational_study/12612947/1 … We don't understand the social mixing and other factors from the results of the paper.
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Replying to @EdwardGoldste16 @MartinKulldorff and
They point out that mortality is elevated generally for people living alone, and the increase in COVID mortality for those living alone was not significantly different from the general increase.
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End of conversation
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