While #COVID19 deaths are counted and visible in the present, the missed health care visits during the #lockdown will lead to deaths that are spread out over many years to come.https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1288555052760694790 …
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Actually, if you look at excess mortality in Euromomo, you will realize that countries with few cases, but lockdown, had no increase in mortality at all. This shows that lockdowns in themselves do not cause excess mortality at all. Only too many cases do.https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Hi Otto. A missed mammography, colonoscopy or high blood pressure diagnosis does not lead to death this year, but they will lead to extra unnecessary deaths during the years to come. It is a big problem that needs urgent attention.
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So what do we do? Force people to go to the hospital to have a mammography if they don't want to because they are afraid of getting the virus? Or pull doctors from caring for COVID patients so that they can do all the mammographies?
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I think we strongly encourage people to go to their doctors to catch-up with their vaccinations, cancer screenings, general check-ups, etc, (PS: Thank you for your extensive comments.)
End of conversation
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And I find it extremely problematic to claim that a few weeks or a most a few months delay can make such a massive difference. In a few exceptional cases, yes, we agree on this. But using this as arguments against lockdowns is murderous nonsense.
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Once there is a major level of daily new cases, without lockdown, the situation gets totally out of control, with horrendous consequences. And not doing lockdowns will change nothing to mammographies and coloscopies. Their postponing is NOT linked to lockdown, but to ...
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... overwhelming of the hospital system, or in some cases to planned reduction in hospital activity to free up capacity to expected heavy cases of COVID. So making delayed appointments an argument against lockdowns is really total nonsense. No need to wait to know this.
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And I find your initial post extremely problematic. You mention missed healthcare "during" lockdown. You probably know very well that this will be interpreted in many cases as meaning "because of the lockdown", even if you don't say it explicitly.
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And the way your tweet is built up suggest (without proving it) that you intended it to be understood as an argument against lockdowns. I am not an epidemiologist. I am doing research about discourses about COVID-19. So this is my field of expertise.
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And one of my focuses is how Harvard epidemiologists, in particular Marc Lipsitch
@mlipsitch , convinced the world that this virus cannot be contained, that we must bet on herd immunity, and how this led to 200,000+ excess deaths in Western Europe alone. Time to hold accountable.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Given the underreported risk of death from elective surgery (or any hospital stay) it's probably a wash.
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