My read is that lockdowns have not held back many, if any, infections (no resurgence in NYC area, etc), bc we started too late, so the virus continues to move around fairly freely. I could see it burning out in 4 wks—but they could manipulate death data into November, sadly.
Maybe(?) in Sweden, but not in the USA. It is not over until death counts are close to zero without a lockdown. The lockdown just postpones the epidemic until we have a vaccine or until we lift the lockdown at a later date. @MLevitt_NP2013https://twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013/status/1287036738565738496 …
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Hi Stacey. Hit hard before lockdown, NYC now has high immunity, so you may be right there. Hard to know. Death counts are partly high due to the nursing home fiasco, which did not generate much immunity, but they have also had considerable immune generating community transmission
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That’s why hiding out and hoping for a vaccine was always a fantasy
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that puts us at never over:https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1286758644730613760 …
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1 …. Seems that he maybe right
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No, not 100%. At some point herd immunity will kick in, but we do not know at what % that happens. If we had a good vaccine, we could protect the elderly and other high risk groups, and also generate herd immunity faster.
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Prof Kulldorf, do you anticipate another wave in Sweden in the next 3-12 months?
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Impossible to know. R is well below 1 right now. When all restrictions are removed, R will increase, but it will hopefully still be <1, in which case there will not be another wave.
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