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MartinKulldorff's profile
Martin Kulldorff
Martin Kulldorff
Martin Kulldorff
@MartinKulldorff

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Martin Kulldorff

@MartinKulldorff

Professor Harvard Medical School. Disease surveillance methods. Infectious disease outbreaks. Vaccine safety. Free SaTScan, TreeScan and RSequential software.

Boston, USA
drugepi.org/team/martin-ku…
Joined May 2014

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    1. Agnes Wold‏ @AgnesWold 23 Jun 2020

      Agnes Wold Retweeted Thread Reader App

      Här en tråd som försöker få ihop den skenbara motsättningen mellan minskande smittotal men låg total immunitet, och samtidigt förklara varför covids epidemikurva inte ser ut som i lärobokenhttps://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1275456653178081282 …

      Agnes Wold added,

      Thread Reader App @threadreaderapp
      Replying to @poagren
      Hi! here is your unroll: @AgnesWold: @JacobGudiol Jag tror jag har fått ihop det, äntligen. En traditionell epidemikurva ser ut så här - det är… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1275428979433000961.html … See you soon. 🤖
      10 replies 24 retweets 121 likes
    2. This Tweet is unavailable.
    3. Agnes Wold‏ @AgnesWold 23 Jun 2020

      Ja, det tror jag på. Jag tror också att R0 varit gravt överskattad (se separat tråd) och eftersom gränsen för flockimmunitet bygger på R0 (1-1/R0) så kanske det inte behövs 60% immuna (baserat på R0 om 2,5) utan bara 37,5% (om R0 i stället är 1,6).

      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      Martin Kulldorff‏ @MartinKulldorff 24 Jun 2020
      Replying to @AgnesWold

      Den formeln är bra i undervisning men fungerar inte i verkligheten, då den antar att alla smittar andra med samma sannolikhet. Vissa har fler kontakter och smittar fler, och då överskattar formeln procentsatsen som behövs för flockimmunitet.

      4:27 PM - 24 Jun 2020
      • 1 Like
      • Lars Jämtnäs
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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