Nikolay Markov

@MarkoNikolay

Senior Economist, Pictet Asset Management. All views are my own.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: siječanj 2014.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    prije 9 sati

    My takeaway on whether should join the on the Bulgarian National Television (in Bulgarian) :

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
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  3. 3. velj

    In , sight deposits continued growing adding further evidence of more significant foreign currency market interventions. BUT: The has more limited room for FX market interventions ahead as the US Treasury has put on its watch list back again.

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  4. 3. velj

    further dichotomy between services & manufacturing surveys: Services new orders & employment perspectives are highly upbeat in contrast with manufacturing orders backlog which are back in contraction =>Further evidence of services-led GDP growth in 2020

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  5. 3. velj

    inflationary risks are increasing back again Led by previously higher energy prices & lira depreciation =>to provide a cap on further monetary policy easing

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  6. 31. sij

    Day, what's next? .Transition period until 2020-end: Status Quo&no disruptions .FTAs negotiations to start in March . to depart from regulations, Customs Union & Single Market => close to Canada-type deal & risk of "hard" Brexit outcome with MFN tariffs in 2021

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  7. 27. sij

    In , the strong upward pressure led to a more active role of the in the market back again! Total sight deposits have surged over the past 2 weeks. BUT more currency interventions may be needed to contain appreciation!

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  8. 22. sij

    Why is the Russian economy in much better shape? Find out in our latest publication: Russia's rebound

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    14. sij

    ✉️ I Quelles perspectives en 2020 pour les pays de l’Est ? Nos experts et se sont penchés sur la situation économique en Hongrie, Pologne, Roumanie et République Tchèque 👉

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    13. sij

    ✉️ I Cap vers l’Est ! Après une année 2019 plutôt solide, les pays d’Europe Centrale et de l’Est devraient voir leur économie fortement ralentir. Décryptage de et 👉

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  11. 9. sij

    In , 's FX reserves plunged. Is that a new trend? NO because: . it reflects large negative FX valuation effects . there is no willingness from the to start reducing its balance sheet, not before the removal of

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    8. sij

    √ Our short-term global trade indicator has rebounded and points to a coming recovery in world exports growth

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    16. pro 2019.

    Tales from the Bull Camp: Central Bank Easing and Yield Compression drives renewed pickup in US construction activity which is a leading indicator for the overall economy.

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  14. 17. pro 2019.

    In , 's sight deposits have collapsed over the past two months (-5.6Bn CHF cumulative)! NOT ONLY the might have stopped intervening in the FX market, but it may have started selling assets? Any ideas?

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  15. 16. pro 2019.

    In , the signaled another rate cut in H1 2020 LED BY: . Stronger than expected disinflation . Falling inflation expectations . Lower short-term inflationary risks =>lower level of neutral policy rate

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  16. 12. pro 2019.

    In , the delivered a large rate cut beyond consensus given the massive inflation drop. BUT this is likely the LAST ONE for a while as the policy rate is now consistent with the projected disinflation path.

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  17. 12. pro 2019.
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  18. 12. pro 2019.

    's kept its negative interest rate policy in place BUT negative rates are no more appropriate: . is undervalued . Inflation is low but in line with 0-2% target range . Growth to reach 1.5-2% in 2020 according to

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  19. 6. pro 2019.

    's FX reserves rose to a new record high! BUT there is no evidence of 's foreign currency interventions. =>market & currency valuation effects fully explain the FX reserves surge

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  20. 5. pro 2019.

    My interview on in

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