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Marco_Piani's profile
Marco Piani
Marco Piani
Marco Piani
@Marco_Piani

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Marco Piani

@Marco_Piani

Tweeting & not tweeting at the same time. Physicist by training, silly by choice. Views my own.

Canada
Joined April 2013

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    Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

    #COVID19 #USA June 23 data Status of cases & tests v. cases trajectories for selected states, with positivity rate Many states having a surge of confirmed cases, & for those states where the positive rate is also increasing, this is unlikely to be due just to more testing.pic.twitter.com/chbtuBNm3F

    7:07 AM - 24 Jun 2020
    • 2 Retweets
    • 3 Likes
    • Eilonwy has an emu, symbolically 🤷🏻‍♀️ Nicholas Chancellor #OneOfUsAllOfUs まじでテレビがデマ流して国が傾きそうなんですけど
    2 replies 2 retweets 3 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

        While confirmed cases tell only part of the story, and one should keep an eye on other important metrics (like hospitalizations), cases provide *early* information, and, when dealing with a process that is exponential, you want to know as early as possible how things are evolving

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      3. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

        About reading the positive rate plot, adapted from a comment by @AeroSpaceKnight's : The tighter the squiggle, the less change in testing and detected virus spread; being presently (= round marker) in a red zone is bad, green good; straight lines mean constant positive rate;...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      4. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

        ... upward vertical shifts are bad (new cases increasing even if tests are not increasing -> virus is spreading) and rightward horizontal shifts are good (new cases do not increase even if we test more -> visrus spread is reducing)

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      5. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

        Information about the importance of the positive rate, recommended value for it (< 5%) for safe reopening, and status for all states, at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity …

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      6. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

        ..From the website: "On May 12, 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) advised governments that before reopening, rates of positivity in testing (ie, out of all tests conducted, how many came back positive for COVID-19) of should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days."...

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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      7. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

        ..."If a positivity rate is too high, that may indicate that the state is only testing the sickest patients who seek medical attention, and is not casting a wide enough net to know how much of the virus is spreading within its communities"

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      8. End of conversation
      1. Marco Piani‏ @Marco_Piani 24 Jun 2020

        @VictimOfMaths : better?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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