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We see this question coming in the next few days... The TIP message's "Predicted Decay Location" has LAT / LON values. They show the location 10km above the earth, though which the object should pass during its descent, NOT THE PREDICTED EARTH IMPACT LOCATION.
Well, but from 10 km altitude the fall is near vertical as any remaining fragments will have lost virtually all forward velocity well above that altitude.
Huh ? you are not saying it will drop straight down from the sky at 10km right ? because ballistic trajectory etc.. I'm trying to wrap my orbital mechanics brain around that statement, but I don't follow ?
It will at some point be slowed down by drag, loose much of the forward velocity component and start a free fall, with wind actually being the biggest lateral force on it. Same happens with meteorites. They can even be blown backwards along the initial trajectory in this phase!
And the important thing is: Breakup occurs higher in the atmosphere, so any location (ground or 10km doesn’t change that much) is just the middle of a probability distribution of fragments.
That is very true!
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